Brock Purdy's rushing yards prop shows a profitable over trend in conference games, hitting at 57.9% with a +6.3 yard differential above the typical 11.5 line. Despite a recent three-game under streak, the 19-game sample demonstrates consistent value on overs with +10.5% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Brock Purdy's rushing production in conference games reveals a quarterback whose mobility becomes more pronounced against familiar divisional opponents. The 17.79 yard average significantly exceeds standard lines, suggesting oddsmakers consistently undervalue his scrambling ability in these matchups. Conference games typically feature more aggressive defensive schemes as teams have extensive film study, forcing Purdy to extend plays with his legs more frequently. The 49ers' offensive system under Kyle Shanahan incorporates designed rollouts and bootlegs that naturally create rushing opportunities, particularly effective against division rivals who prioritize containing the team's explosive passing attack. The recent three-game under streak appears more anomalous than indicative of regression, especially considering the sample includes a dominant nine-game over streak that demonstrates the sustainability of this edge. Conference games often feature tighter contests where every yard matters, leading to more conservative pocket management and increased scrambling situations. The +10.5% ROI on overs indicates this isn't just a statistical quirk but a genuine market inefficiency, while the -19.6% under ROI warns against fading this trend.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 6.3-yard average differential above standard lines creates consistent value despite the recent under streak. Target conference matchups where defensive pressure and familiarity force Purdy into more scrambling situations. Primary risk lies in potential game script changes if San Francisco builds large leads early, reducing Purdy's need to extend plays.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 18.5 | 12.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 21.5 | 3.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 16.5 | 11.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 17.5 | 40.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 16.5 | 17.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 17.5 | 56.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 19.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 11.5 | 33.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 9.5 | 41.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 8.5 | 12.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 7.5 | 48.0 | +40.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 6.5 | 14.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 9.5 | 1.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brock Purdy's Rushing Yards prop record conference games?
Brock Purdy's rushing yards prop in conference games shows an 11-8 over record (57.9% hit rate) across 19 games from September 2023 to December 2024, generating +10.5% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brock Purdy Rushing Yards conference games?
Bet the over on Brock Purdy's rushing yards in conference games. The 6.3-yard average differential above typical lines and 57.9% hit rate with positive ROI creates consistent value despite recent under streak.
What's Brock Purdy's average Rushing Yards conference games?
Brock Purdy averages 17.79 rushing yards in conference games, significantly above the standard 11.5-yard line. This +6.3 differential represents substantial value that oddsmakers consistently underestimate in divisional matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target conference games where defensive familiarity forces more scrambling situations. Avoid games with potential blowout scenarios where Purdy might not need to extend plays, but prioritize tight divisional contests with aggressive pass rush schemes.