Brock Purdy's rushing yards prop presents a compelling over opportunity, hitting at a 60.7% rate across 28 games with a +5.1 yard differential above the typical 11.18 line. The 49ers quarterback averages 16.29 rushing yards per game, generating a strong +15.9% ROI on overs. This trend merits serious consideration for over betting.
Expert Analysis
Brock Purdy's rushing production consistently exceeds market expectations due to several structural factors that create sustainable value. The 49ers' offensive system under Kyle Shanahan incorporates designed quarterback runs and RPOs that naturally inflate Purdy's rushing numbers beyond what traditional pocket passers accumulate. His mobility, while not elite, proves sufficient to capitalize on these schematic advantages and scramble opportunities when pocket protection breaks down. The +5.1 yard differential between his actual production (16.29) and typical lines (11.18) suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his rushing floor within San Francisco's system. The impressive 60.7% over rate across 28 games demonstrates remarkable consistency, with his longest over streak reaching 10 games compared to just 3 consecutive unders. This pattern indicates the trend stems from systematic factors rather than random variance. The +15.9% ROI on overs validates the mathematical edge, while the -25.0% under ROI warns against contrarian betting. However, bettors should monitor whether increased market awareness might tighten future lines, potentially eroding this edge over time.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Purdy's 60.7% over rate and +5.1 yard differential create genuine value, particularly when lines remain around 11-12 yards. The 49ers' system naturally generates rushing opportunities for their quarterback, and his 16.29 average provides a solid foundation. The main risk involves potential line adjustments as the market catches up to his consistent production, so act while current pricing remains favorable.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 18.5 | 12.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 15.5 | 26.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 21.5 | 3.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 16.5 | 11.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 17.5 | 4.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 17.5 | 40.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 16.5 | 17.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 17.5 | 56.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 14.5 | 27.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 19.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 11.5 | 33.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 7.5 | 11.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 9.5 | 41.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 8.5 | 12.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 7.5 | 11.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brock Purdy's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Brock Purdy's rushing yards prop shows a 17-11-0 over/under record across all games, hitting the over at a 60.7% rate. This strong over performance spans 28 games from September 2023 through December 2024, generating consistent value for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brock Purdy Rushing Yards all games?
Bet the over on Brock Purdy's rushing yards props. His 60.7% over rate and +5.1 yard differential above typical lines create legitimate value. The 49ers' system naturally generates rushing opportunities, making overs the preferred play when lines stay reasonable.
What's Brock Purdy's average Rushing Yards all games?
Brock Purdy averages 16.29 rushing yards per game across all situations, compared to typical prop lines around 11.18 yards. This +5.1 yard differential represents significant value, as he consistently outproduces market expectations by nearly half his projected total.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Brock Purdy rushing yards overs when lines remain in the 10-13 yard range, where his 16.29 average provides maximum value. Avoid betting if lines inflate significantly above his historical average, as the edge diminishes with higher numbers.