Brock Purdy's passing touchdown props have been a coin flip over his last 10 games, going 5-5-0 on overs with a -0.1 differential against the standard 1.5 line. The 49ers quarterback is averaging exactly 1.4 touchdowns per game, creating a slight edge toward the under.
Expert Analysis
Brock Purdy's touchdown production has been remarkably consistent yet underwhelming relative to market expectations over this 10-game sample. The 1.4 average against a 1.5 line represents a meaningful 7% gap that suggests books are pricing in his ceiling rather than his median performance. This differential becomes more significant when considering Purdy's role in Kyle Shanahan's system, which often prioritizes field goals in the red zone and utilizes multiple touchdown threats including Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle. The 50% over rate with negative ROI on both sides indicates the market is efficiently pricing these props, but the slight under-performance suggests regression toward his actual usage patterns rather than his reputation. Purdy's touchdown dependency on game script and opponent strength makes him vulnerable to underwhelming performances against stronger defenses or in games where San Francisco establishes early leads and leans on their running game. The recent two-game over streak could represent variance rather than a sustainable shift, especially given the small sample size and Purdy's tendency toward efficient but conservative play in Shanahan's system.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.1 differential combined with negative ROI on overs suggests the market is slightly overvaluing Purdy's touchdown upside. Target under bets when facing top-10 pass defenses or in games where San Francisco is favored by more than a touchdown, as these scenarios favor conservative game management and increased red zone field goal attempts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brock Purdy's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Brock Purdy has gone 5-5-0 on passing touchdown overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of over bets. He's averaging 1.4 passing touchdowns per game against the typical 1.5 line, showing slight underperformance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brock Purdy Passing TDs last 10 games?
Lean toward betting under on Brock Purdy's passing touchdowns. The -0.1 differential and negative ROI on both sides suggest the under offers slightly better value, especially against strong defenses or when San Francisco is heavily favored.
What's Brock Purdy's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Brock Purdy is averaging 1.4 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games compared to the standard 1.5 line. This 0.1 touchdown gap represents a 7% underperformance that creates a slight edge for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Brock Purdy touchdown unders when San Francisco faces top-10 pass defenses or is favored by more than a touchdown. These game scripts favor conservative play-calling and increased reliance on field goals in scoring position.