Brian Robinson has been a consistent under performer in rushing yards props, hitting the over just 30% of the time across his last 10 games. Averaging 46.7 yards against a 54.3-yard line creates a significant -7.6 differential that has delivered +33.6% ROI on unders. This represents a strong fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Robinson's rushing yard struggles stem from Washington's evolving offensive identity and his limited ceiling in a committee backfield. The 46.7-yard average against 54.3-yard lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced workload and efficiency concerns. His longest over streak reached just one game, while he's strung together a five-game under streak at one point, indicating consistent underperformance rather than random variance. The Commanders' increased reliance on Jayden Daniels' mobility and a more pass-heavy approach has capped Robinson's opportunities, particularly in negative game scripts. His 30% over rate across 10 games represents a large enough sample to identify a legitimate trend, especially when combined with the -42.7% ROI on overs showing sharp money has been consistently wrong. The current one-game under streak suggests recent momentum aligns with the broader pattern. Washington's offensive line struggles and Robinson's inability to break big plays have created a perfect storm for consistent under results. The 7.6-yard average shortfall isn't marginal variance—it represents a fundamental disconnect between expectations and reality in Robinson's current role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Robinson's 30% over rate and -7.6 yard differential indicate systematic underperformance that oddsmakers haven't fully corrected. The +33.6% under ROI validates this as a profitable fade spot. Target unders when lines exceed 50 yards, as Robinson has shown limited ceiling in Washington's current offensive structure. Main risk is positive game script creating garbage time opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 37.5 | 36.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 35.5 | 77.0 | +41.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 44.5 | 16.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 48.5 | 10.0 | -38.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 65.5 | 60.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 55.5 | 24.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 77.5 | 65.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 57.5 | 103.0 | +45.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 73.5 | 13.0 | -60.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 47.5 | 63.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brian Robinson's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Robinson has gone 3-7-0 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of the time. He's averaged 46.7 yards against lines averaging 54.3, creating a significant -7.6 yard differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brian Robinson Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Robinson's rushing yards props. His 30% over rate and -7.6 average differential have produced +33.6% ROI on unders while overs lose at -42.7%. This represents a clear systematic edge favoring the under.
What's Brian Robinson's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Robinson has averaged 46.7 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to average prop lines of 54.3 yards. This -7.6 yard shortfall isn't marginal—it represents consistent underperformance that creates betting value on the under side.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Robinson under bets when prop lines exceed 50 yards, as his ceiling remains limited in Washington's current offense. Avoid in clear positive game scripts where garbage time could inflate his numbers, but standard game situations favor unders.