Brian Robinson's rushing yards props show clear under value with a 48.3% over rate across 29 games. His 52.45-yard average runs nearly a full yard below the typical 53.33 line, creating consistent line inflation. The under delivers superior -1.2% ROI versus -7.8% on overs, making this a systematic fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Robinson's underwhelming prop performance stems from Washington's evolving offensive identity and his role limitations. The 52.45-yard average against 53.33 lines reveals consistent market overvaluation, likely driven by his goal-line reputation inflating perception beyond his between-the-twenties production. The -7.8% ROI on overs versus -1.2% on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency. Robinson's 48.3% over rate suggests he's more touchdown-dependent than yardage-accumulating, with game scripts often limiting his volume when Washington falls behind or controls games through the passing attack. The recent under streak of one game interrupts what could be longer cold stretches, as evidenced by his longest under streak reaching five games. This pattern indicates Robinson's production varies significantly based on game flow and opponent strength, but the consistent line inflation creates systematic value on the under. The lack of meaningful splits data suggests his struggles are broad-based rather than situation-specific, making the under a reliable approach across different contexts.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Robinson's consistent underperformance against inflated lines creates systematic value, with the under delivering superior ROI and hitting 51.7% of the time. Target this bet when lines sit at 53+ yards, particularly in games where Washington may need to throw more. The main risk is positive game script creating more rushing volume, but his average production suggests even favorable conditions rarely push him significantly over typical lines.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 37.5 | 36.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 35.5 | 77.0 | +41.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 44.5 | 16.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 48.5 | 10.0 | -38.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 65.5 | 60.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 55.5 | 24.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 77.5 | 65.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 57.5 | 103.0 | +45.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 73.5 | 13.0 | -60.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 47.5 | 63.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 54.5 | 65.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 54.5 | 18.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 66.5 | 101.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 54.5 | 33.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 56.5 | 133.0 | +76.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brian Robinson's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Robinson's rushing yards props show a 14-15 over/under record (48.3% overs) across 29 games from September 2023 through January 2025. This translates to unders hitting 51.7% of the time, creating slight but consistent value on the under side of his props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brian Robinson Rushing Yards all games?
Lean under on Robinson's rushing yards props. His 52.45-yard average runs below typical 53.33 lines, and unders show superior -1.2% ROI versus -7.8% on overs. Target lines at 53+ yards for maximum value, especially in competitive game scripts.
What's Brian Robinson's average Rushing Yards all games?
Robinson averages 52.45 rushing yards per game across this 29-game sample, running 0.88 yards below the typical 53.33 line. This consistent gap between production and market expectations creates the foundation for systematic under value in his rushing props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Robinson under bets when lines sit at 53+ yards, particularly in games where Washington faces strong opponents or may need to throw more. Avoid in obvious positive game scripts against weak run defenses where volume could spike unexpectedly.