Bo Nix has been a passing yards goldmine over his last 10 games, crushing the over at a 70% clip with a 7-3-0 record. The rookie quarterback is averaging 238.9 yards against a 222.3 line, producing a massive +16.6 differential and +33.6% ROI on overs.
Expert Analysis
Bo Nix's passing yards surge reflects Denver's offensive evolution under Sean Payton, who has increasingly leaned on the rookie's arm as the season progressed. The 16.6-yard average differential above market lines suggests oddsmakers are still catching up to Nix's expanded role in the Broncos' aerial attack. This trend shows remarkable consistency, with Nix hitting a five-game over streak before his most recent under, indicating sustainable offensive adjustments rather than random variance. The rookie's comfort level has visibly increased, translating to more aggressive downfield attempts and higher completion rates on intermediate routes. Denver's defense keeping games competitive has also contributed, forcing Nix into more passing situations rather than clock-killing ground games. However, the 70% over rate raises regression concerns, especially as playoff implications mount and Denver may prioritize ball security over volume. The sample size of 10 games provides decent confidence, but rookie quarterbacks remain inherently volatile. Weather conditions and opponent-specific game scripts could quickly derail this trend, particularly against teams that can build early leads and force Denver into obvious passing situations where Nix might struggle with pressure.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Nix's 16.6-yard differential above market lines indicates genuine offensive growth that oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to yet. The trend appears sustainable given Denver's playoff push and Payton's trust in his rookie quarterback. However, the 70% over rate suggests some regression is due, and rookie volatility remains a concern in high-pressure situations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 223.5 | 144.0 | -79.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 223.5 | 321.0 | +97.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 236.5 | 219.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 223.5 | 263.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 236.5 | 130.0 | -106.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-02 | OPP | 221.5 | 294.0 | +72.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 221.5 | 273.0 | +51.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 212.5 | 307.0 | +94.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 203.5 | 215.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 220.5 | 223.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Find the Best Passing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bo Nix's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Bo Nix has gone over his passing yards prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% over rate) with a 7-3-0 record. He's averaging 238.9 yards against a 222.3 average line, creating a +16.6 differential that has produced strong returns for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bo Nix Passing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Bo Nix passing yards props. His 16.6-yard average differential above market lines suggests oddsmakers haven't caught up to his expanded role. However, the 70% over rate indicates some regression is likely, so bet selectively rather than blindly.
What's Bo Nix's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Bo Nix is averaging 238.9 passing yards over his last 10 games, which is 16.6 yards above his average line of 222.3. This significant differential has generated a +33.6% ROI for over bettors, indicating consistent market undervaluation of his current production level.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bo Nix passing yards overs in competitive games where Denver needs to throw, especially against teams with strong rushing defenses. Avoid in potential blowouts where game script favors clock management, and be cautious in adverse weather conditions that limit downfield passing.