Baker Mayfield has delivered exceptional rushing value in conference games, hitting the over at a 56% clip with a massive +6.7 yard differential above the typical 11.54 line. The 25-game sample shows consistent outperformance with positive ROI, making this a clear lean over situation.
Expert Analysis
Baker Mayfield's rushing production in conference games reveals a systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers who consistently set lines around 11.54 yards while he averages 18.28 yards per game. This 58.1% outperformance suggests books haven't adjusted to Mayfield's evolved mobility within Tampa Bay's offensive system. The quarterback's rushing yards often come from designed rollouts, scrambles on broken plays, and red zone sneaks that become more frequent against familiar divisional opponents who force longer possessions. Conference games typically feature tighter defensive schemes where Mayfield's pocket presence and willingness to extend plays with his legs becomes crucial. The 14-11 over record across 25 games provides substantial sample size reliability, while the +6.9% ROI on overs indicates sustainable profitability. However, the -16.0% under ROI suggests books may be slow to adjust, creating continued value. The current two-game over streak aligns with historical patterns where Mayfield's rushing production clusters, particularly when Tampa Bay faces pressure-heavy conference defenses that force mobility.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +6.7 yard differential above market expectations is too significant to ignore, especially with 56% hit rate validation across 25 conference games. Target this prop when Mayfield faces aggressive pass rushes or in potential shootout scenarios where extended possessions increase scramble opportunities. Primary risk involves game script if Tampa Bay builds large leads early and shifts to conservative pocket passing.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 19.5 | 23.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 11.5 | 68.0 | +56.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 15.5 | 2.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 15.5 | 42.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 12.5 | 8.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 11.5 | 29.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 3.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 18.5 | 11.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 12.5 | 29.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-03 | OPP | 10.5 | 42.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 10.5 | 10.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 10.5 | 34.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 7.5 | 21.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 7.5 | 15.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 8.5 | 16.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Baker Mayfield's Rushing Yards prop record conference games?
Baker Mayfield has gone over his rushing yards prop in 14 of 25 conference games (56% hit rate) with an average of 18.28 yards per game, significantly outperforming typical lines around 11.54 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards conference games?
Bet the over on Mayfield's rushing yards in conference games. The +6.7 yard differential above market lines and 56% hit rate with positive ROI makes this a consistent value play worth targeting.
What's Baker Mayfield's average Rushing Yards conference games?
Baker Mayfield averages 18.28 rushing yards in conference games compared to typical lines of 11.54 yards, creating a massive +6.7 yard advantage that translates to sustainable betting value over 25 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mayfield rushing overs against aggressive pass-rushing conference opponents or in projected close games where scrambling becomes necessary. Avoid when Tampa Bay is heavily favored and likely to control games through pocket passing.