Baker Mayfield's rushing yards props present a compelling over opportunity, hitting at a robust 58.8% rate (20-14 record) while averaging 17.35 yards against an 11.5 line. The +5.8 yard differential and strong 12.3% ROI on overs signal consistent market undervaluation of his scrambling ability.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a quarterback whose mobility is systematically underpriced by oddsmakers. Mayfield's 17.35 yard average represents a massive 51% premium over the typical 11.5 line, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to his scrambling frequency in Tampa Bay's system. This isn't just statistical noise—the 58.8% over rate across 34 games provides robust sample size confidence. The +12.3% ROI on overs versus -21.4% on unders creates a clear directional edge that's persisted across multiple seasons. Mayfield's rushing production likely stems from Todd Bowles' defensive background creating more mobile pocket situations, plus the Bucs' willingness to design quarterback runs in key moments. The consistency is striking—no extreme splits suggest this edge holds across various game scripts and opponents. However, the recent 2-game over streak and historical 4-game streaks in both directions indicate some volatility. The key risk is regression to mean, though the sample size suggests this IS the mean for Mayfield in Tampa Bay's system.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.8% hit rate and +5.8 yard differential create a sustainable edge, but the margin isn't overwhelming enough for maximum conviction. Target games where Tampa Bay faces pressure defenses that force more scrambling, or when they're road underdogs needing Mayfield's legs in crucial situations. The main risk is a cold streak erasing profits, but the underlying fundamentals support continued over value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 19.5 | 23.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 11.5 | 68.0 | +56.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 15.5 | 2.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 15.5 | 42.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 13.5 | 25.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 12.5 | 12.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 12.5 | 8.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 11.5 | 29.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 3.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 15.5 | 20.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 18.5 | 11.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 14.5 | 22.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 12.5 | 29.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-03 | OPP | 10.5 | 42.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 10.5 | 10.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Baker Mayfield's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Baker Mayfield's rushing yards props have gone over in 20 of 34 games (58.8% rate) with a 20-14-0 record. He averages 17.35 yards against the typical 11.5 line, creating a +5.8 yard differential that has generated 12.3% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards all games?
Bet over on Baker Mayfield's rushing yards. The 58.8% over rate and +5.8 yard average differential create a clear edge. Target games against pressure defenses or when Tampa Bay is an underdog, as these scenarios typically increase scrambling frequency.
What's Baker Mayfield's average Rushing Yards all games?
Baker Mayfield averages 17.35 rushing yards per game, significantly above the standard 11.5 yard line. This 5.8 yard differential represents a 51% premium, indicating oddsmakers consistently undervalue his scrambling ability in Tampa Bay's offensive system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Baker Mayfield rushing yards overs when Tampa Bay faces aggressive pass rushes or plays as road underdogs. These situations typically force more scrambling and designed runs. Avoid after long over streaks, as 4-game swings in both directions show volatility patterns.