Baker Mayfield has absolutely torched passing touchdown totals, hitting the over in 7 of his last 10 games for a 70% success rate. At 2.2 touchdowns per game against a typical 1.5 line, he's delivering nearly a full touchdown above expectations. This trend screams OVER.
Expert Analysis
Baker Mayfield's passing touchdown surge reflects Tampa Bay's evolved offensive identity under his leadership. The 2.2 touchdown average against 1.5 lines represents a massive 0.7 differential that suggests either the market is consistently undervaluing his red zone efficiency or the Buccaneers' offensive system has unlocked something sustainable. The 6-game over streak indicates momentum rather than random variance, particularly given Tampa Bay's improved receiving corps health and Mayfield's comfort in the system. His 33.6% ROI on overs demonstrates clear market inefficiency. The concern lies in potential regression to career norms and whether this hot streak reflects genuine skill development or unsustainable touchdown luck. However, Mayfield's red zone decision-making has visibly improved, and Tampa Bay's offensive line stability has given him cleaner pockets for scoring throws. The consistency of this trend across 10 games suggests systematic improvement rather than statistical noise. Bettors should monitor game scripts and opponent defensive rankings, but this data points to a quarterback who has found his rhythm in a system that maximizes his touchdown upside.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Mayfield's 70% over rate and 0.7 touchdown differential above the line indicate genuine value, especially during this 6-game hot streak. The ideal condition is home games or favorable matchups against weaker pass defenses. Main risk is inevitable regression, but the sample size and consistency suggest this isn't pure luck.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Baker Mayfield's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Baker Mayfield has hit the over on his passing touchdowns prop in 7 of his last 10 games, posting a 70% success rate. He's averaging 2.2 touchdowns per game against typical 1.5 lines, delivering exceptional value for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Baker Mayfield Passing TDs last 10 games?
Bet the OVER on Baker Mayfield's passing touchdowns. His 70% over rate, 0.7 touchdown differential above the line, and current 6-game over streak indicate strong value. The 33.6% ROI on overs shows clear market inefficiency worth exploiting.
What's Baker Mayfield's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Baker Mayfield is averaging 2.2 passing touchdowns per game over his last 10 contests. This sits 0.7 touchdowns above the typical 1.5 line, representing significant value and suggesting the market consistently undervalues his red zone production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Baker Mayfield passing touchdown overs in favorable game scripts, particularly at home or against weaker pass defenses. His current 6-game over streak and 70% success rate suggest the trend has momentum, making any reasonable line an attractive over opportunity.