Baker Mayfield's passing touchdown production at home has been remarkably consistent, hitting the over in 11 of 18 games (61.1%) with a +0.6 differential above the typical 1.5 line. The +16.7% ROI on overs reflects genuine value in a quarterback who thrives in Tampa Bay's controlled environment.
Expert Analysis
Mayfield's home touchdown dominance stems from Tampa Bay's offensive infrastructure and his comfort level in familiar surroundings. The 2.06 average significantly exceeds the standard 1.5 line, indicating consistent red zone efficiency when playing at Raymond James Stadium. This isn't merely variance—the 61.1% over rate across 18 games represents a meaningful sample size that suggests structural advantages. Home games eliminate travel fatigue and crowd noise disruption, allowing Mayfield to operate Tampa Bay's quick-strike offense with maximum precision. The current four-game over streak aligns with his seasonal rhythm, as he's found consistent chemistry with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in scoring situations. The -25.8% ROI on unders demonstrates how consistently the market undervalues his home touchdown production. However, regression remains possible given the elevated success rate, and weather conditions at Raymond James can occasionally impact passing games. The key sustainability factor lies in Tampa Bay's red zone play-calling, which has consistently favored Mayfield's arm over running game vultures. His home splits suggest he's genuinely more effective in familiar conditions, making this trend more predictive than random statistical noise.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Mayfield's 61.1% over rate at home reflects genuine environmental advantages rather than pure luck, with the +0.6 differential providing consistent value against the 1.5 line. Target games with favorable weather conditions and when Tampa Bay's receiving corps is healthy. The main risk is potential regression from the current hot streak, but the underlying factors supporting home touchdown production remain intact.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing TDs Prop Lines
Compare Baker Mayfield props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Baker Mayfield's Passing TDs prop record home games?
Baker Mayfield has gone over his passing touchdowns prop in 11 of 18 home games (61.1%), averaging 2.06 touchdowns against a typical 1.5 line for a +0.6 differential per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Baker Mayfield Passing TDs home games?
Lean over on Mayfield's passing touchdowns at home. The 61.1% over rate and +16.7% ROI indicate genuine value, especially with favorable weather and healthy receivers.
What's Baker Mayfield's average Passing TDs home games?
Mayfield averages 2.06 passing touchdowns in home games, significantly exceeding the standard 1.5 line by 0.6 touchdowns per game, demonstrating consistent home field advantages.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mayfield touchdown overs during home games with clear weather conditions and when Tampa Bay's top receivers are healthy, maximizing his red zone efficiency advantages.