Antonio Gibson has been a consistent over performer in rushing yards props, hitting the over in 6 of his last 10 games with a 60% success rate. His 31.7 yards per game average significantly exceeds typical lines by 8.6 yards, generating a strong 14.6% ROI on overs. The trend favors backing Gibson's rushing yards overs.
Expert Analysis
Gibson's rushing yards trend reveals a player consistently outperforming market expectations through volume and efficiency. The 8.6-yard differential between his actual production and typical betting lines suggests oddsmakers are undervaluing his role in New England's ground game. This gap likely stems from Gibson's versatility as both a traditional runner and receiving back, creating additional opportunities for rushing attempts that books may not fully account for. The 60% over rate demonstrates sustainable production rather than random variance, supported by his ability to maximize limited touches through decisive running. The current four-game over streak indicates Gibson has found his rhythm within the Patriots' offensive system. However, the balanced 4-game longest streaks in both directions show this isn't a runaway trend prone to immediate regression. The 14.6% ROI on overs versus the crushing -23.6% on unders creates a clear mathematical edge. Gibson's production appears tied to game flow and offensive philosophy rather than matchup-dependent factors, making this trend more predictable than typical rushing props. The consistency of outperforming lines suggests either persistent market mispricing or genuine role expansion that hasn't been fully recognized in betting markets.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Gibson's 8.6-yard average differential above typical lines creates genuine value on rushing yards overs, particularly when lines fall in the low-to-mid 20s range. The four-game over streak and 14.6% ROI demonstrate sustainable outperformance rather than lucky variance. Primary risk lies in potential game scripts that limit New England's rushing attempts or Gibson's snap share, but his dual-threat ability provides multiple paths to value even in negative game flow situations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 30.5 | 63.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 20.5 | 28.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 19.5 | 33.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 10.5 | 26.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 18.5 | 7.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 22.5 | 4.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 48.5 | 19.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 19.5 | 12.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 23.5 | 29.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 17.5 | 96.0 | +78.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Antonio Gibson's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Antonio Gibson has hit the over on his rushing yards props in 6 of his last 10 games, posting a 60% over rate with 4 unders. His current streak stands at 4 consecutive overs, matching his longest over streak in this sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Gibson's rushing yards props. His 31.7 yards per game average consistently exceeds typical lines by 8.6 yards, generating a 14.6% ROI on overs while unders lose -23.6%. The math favors backing overs, especially on lower lines.
What's Antonio Gibson's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Gibson averages 31.7 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to typical betting lines of 23.1 yards. This 8.6-yard differential represents significant value, as he's consistently outperforming market expectations by over a third of the line value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gibson rushing yards overs when lines are set in the low-to-mid 20s range, maximizing the value gap. His dual-threat role provides consistency regardless of game script, making him less matchup-dependent than traditional running backs for prop betting purposes.