Anthony Richardson's passing yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20.0% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -29.6 yard average differential. Currently riding a four-game under streak, Richardson's passing volume remains severely limited in Indianapolis's run-heavy approach.
Expert Analysis
Richardson's passing struggles stem from a perfect storm of developmental limitations and schematic constraints. The second-year quarterback averages just 160.2 passing yards against lines averaging 189.8, creating consistent value on unders. His completion percentage woes and tendency toward turnovers force Indianapolis into conservative game scripts that prioritize Jonathan Taylor's ground attack over aerial development. The Colts' offensive philosophy treats Richardson's arm as a complement rather than a focal point, evident in their willingness to pull back passing volume when games remain competitive. Richardson's mobility adds rushing production but actually hurts his passing totals, as designed runs and scrambles replace potential dropbacks. His inconsistent accuracy makes coaches hesitant to dial up high-volume passing attacks, even in negative game scripts. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that consistently overvalues Richardson's passing ceiling based on physical tools rather than current production reality. With Indianapolis prioritizing ball control and Richardson's development progressing slowly, this systematic underperformance appears sustainable rather than due for sharp regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Richardson's 20.0% over rate reflects genuine schematic limitations rather than temporary variance, making unders the clear value play. Target unders when lines exceed 180 yards, as the Colts consistently limit his volume regardless of game script. Primary risk comes from potential garbage time in blowout losses, though Indianapolis's conservative approach typically prevents dramatic volume spikes even when trailing.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 183.5 | 131.0 | -52.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 187.5 | 172.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 184.5 | 109.0 | -75.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 201.5 | 172.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 178.5 | 272.0 | +93.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 188.5 | 175.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 198.5 | 129.0 | -69.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 182.5 | 71.0 | -111.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 198.5 | 167.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 194.5 | 204.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Richardson's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Richardson has gone 2-8 on passing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% while averaging 160.2 yards against 189.8 yard lines for a -29.6 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Richardson Passing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Richardson's passing yards. His 20.0% over rate and -29.6 yard average differential create clear value, especially when lines exceed 180 yards in Indianapolis's run-heavy offense.
What's Anthony Richardson's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Richardson averages 160.2 passing yards over his last 10 games, falling 29.6 yards short of his average line of 189.8 yards, demonstrating consistent underperformance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Richardson passing yards unders when lines exceed 180 yards and Indianapolis faces competitive games where their conservative, run-first approach limits his volume regardless of opponent strength.