Anthony Richardson's passing yards props in conference games present one of the season's most reliable under trends, hitting just 18.2% of overs across 11 games with a devastating -43.1 yard differential. The Colts quarterback averages 149.82 yards against lines typically set around 192.95, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Richardson's conference game struggles stem from multiple converging factors that create a perfect storm for under results. His 149.82-yard average represents a massive 43.1-yard shortfall from typical betting lines, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his limitations against familiar divisional opponents who've had extensive film study opportunities. The rookie quarterback's development curve has been particularly steep in conference play, where defensive coordinators exploit his tendency to hold the ball too long and struggle with pre-snap reads. Indianapolis's offensive philosophy compounds these issues, as they've increasingly leaned on Jonathan Taylor and the ground game in tighter divisional contests where field position and turnovers matter more. The -65.3% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that continues to overvalue Richardson's ceiling while underestimating how conference defenses neutralize his mobility. His current three-game under streak and historical six-game under run demonstrate this isn't random variance but a systematic issue. The Colts' conservative game-planning in division games, combined with Richardson's inconsistent accuracy on intermediate routes, creates a ceiling that rarely allows him to approach inflated passing yard totals that don't account for his conference-specific struggles.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Richardson's 18.2% over rate in conference games represents exceptional betting value, particularly when lines exceed 180 yards. Target unders when Indianapolis faces division rivals or teams with strong pass rush units that can exploit his pocket presence issues. The primary risk involves garbage time scenarios in blowout losses, but the Colts' run-heavy approach in competitive conference games typically limits late-game passing volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 183.5 | 131.0 | -52.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 187.5 | 172.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 184.5 | 109.0 | -75.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 178.5 | 272.0 | +93.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 188.5 | 175.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 198.5 | 129.0 | -69.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 182.5 | 71.0 | -111.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 223.5 | 212.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 211.5 | 98.0 | -113.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 193.5 | 56.0 | -137.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 190.5 | 223.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Richardson's Passing Yards prop record conference games?
Richardson is 2-9-0 on passing yards overs in conference games (18.2% hit rate) with a brutal -65.3% ROI for over bettors. He's averaging just 149.82 yards against lines typically set around 192.95, creating a massive 43.1-yard differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Richardson Passing Yards conference games?
Bet UNDER on Richardson's passing yards in conference games with high confidence. The 18.2% over rate and -43.1 yard differential create exceptional value on unders, especially when lines exceed 180 yards. This trend shows systematic issues rather than random variance.
What's Anthony Richardson's average Passing Yards conference games?
Richardson averages 149.82 passing yards in conference games, a staggering 43.1 yards below typical betting lines around 192.95. This massive differential represents one of the season's most reliable under trends, with consistent shortfalls across his 11-game sample size.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Richardson under bets in primetime conference games or when facing teams with strong pass rush units. Lines above 185 yards offer premium value, while avoiding unders in potential blowout losses where garbage time could inflate his numbers late.