Anthony Richardson's passing yards props present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 20.0% of overs across 15 games with a brutal -35.1 yard differential from his typical 194.5 line. The rookie quarterback's inconsistent accuracy and Indianapolis's run-heavy approach create systematic value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Richardson's passing yards struggles stem from fundamental accuracy issues that plague most rookie quarterbacks, particularly those who relied heavily on athleticism in college. His 20.0% over rate isn't just bad luck—it reflects a quarterback still learning NFL timing and progressions while operating behind an inconsistent offensive line. The Colts' coaching staff has adapted by emphasizing Richardson's rushing ability and leaning on Jonathan Taylor, creating a game script that naturally suppresses passing volume. Richardson's 159.4-yard average sits a staggering 35.1 yards below typical closing lines, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his limitations. The four-game under streak indicates recent market recognition, but books remain slow to adjust given Richardson's draft pedigree and physical tools. His completion percentage and yards per attempt metrics consistently underperform expectations, creating a systematic edge that persists because casual bettors continue backing the athletic upside while sharp money hammers unders. The lack of reliable receiving weapons beyond Michael Pittman Jr. compounds these issues, as Richardson often lacks safety valves when primary reads aren't available.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Richardson's 20.0% over rate and -35.1 yard differential create exceptional value that the market hasn't fully recognized. Target unders when lines sit above 180 yards, especially in divisional games or weather-affected contests where the Colts lean heavily on their ground game. The primary risk is a potential breakout performance, but Richardson's fundamental accuracy issues suggest continued struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 183.5 | 131.0 | -52.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 187.5 | 172.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 184.5 | 109.0 | -75.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 201.5 | 172.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 178.5 | 272.0 | +93.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 188.5 | 175.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 198.5 | 129.0 | -69.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 182.5 | 71.0 | -111.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 198.5 | 167.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 194.5 | 204.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 223.5 | 212.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 211.5 | 98.0 | -113.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 200.5 | 200.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 193.5 | 56.0 | -137.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 190.5 | 223.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Richardson's Passing Yards prop record all games?
Richardson is 3-12-0 on passing yards overs across 15 games, hitting just 20.0% with an average of 159.4 yards against typical lines around 194.5 yards, creating a massive -35.1 yard differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Richardson Passing Yards all games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Richardson's 20.0% over rate and -35.1 yard differential represent exceptional value, particularly when lines exceed 180 yards in run-favorable game scripts.
What's Anthony Richardson's average Passing Yards all games?
Richardson averages 159.4 passing yards per game, falling 35.1 yards short of his typical 194.5 closing line—a massive gap that creates systematic value on unders.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Richardson passing yards unders when lines exceed 180 yards, especially in divisional matchups or weather-affected games where Indianapolis emphasizes their ground attack over Richardson's inconsistent arm.