Amon-Ra St. Brown's divisional reception props present a clear under edge, hitting just 45.5% overs across 11 games with a concerning -13.2% ROI on overs. Despite averaging 6.73 receptions against a 6.5 line, the current four-game under streak signals sustainable value on the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Amon-Ra St. Brown's divisional reception patterns that contradicts surface-level expectations. While St. Brown averages 6.73 receptions in NFC North matchups—seemingly above the typical 6.5 line—this modest 0.2 differential masks significant variance that favors under bettors. The 45.5% over rate across 11 games represents a meaningful sample size, especially when combined with the brutal -13.2% ROI for over backers. This suggests the market consistently overvalues St. Brown's reception floor in divisional contests. The current four-game under streak isn't just noise—it represents the longest streak in either direction and indicates a sustainable pattern. Divisional familiarity often leads to more targeted defensive game plans, and NFC North defenses have clearly identified ways to limit St. Brown's volume without necessarily shutting him down completely. The +4.1% ROI on unders demonstrates that this isn't just about avoiding bad overs—there's genuine profit in consistently backing the under. What makes this trend particularly compelling is its consistency despite St. Brown's overall talent level, suggesting scheme-based limitations rather than performance-based variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 45.5% over rate combined with negative ROI on overs creates a sustainable edge, particularly with the current four-game under streak showing no signs of regression. Target unders when the line sits at 6.5 or higher, as the 6.73 average provides minimal safety margin. Primary risk is a blowout game script that forces volume, but divisional games typically remain competitive enough to maintain normal target distribution.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 12.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-28 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amon-Ra St. Brown's Receptions prop record divisional games?
Amon-Ra St. Brown hits the over on reception props in just 5 of 11 divisional games (45.5%), with overs producing a devastating -13.2% ROI while unders generate positive 4.1% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions divisional games?
Bet the under on Amon-Ra St. Brown's receptions in divisional games. The 45.5% over rate and negative ROI on overs create a clear edge, especially during his current four-game under streak.
What's Amon-Ra St. Brown's average Receptions divisional games?
St. Brown averages 6.73 receptions in divisional games, just 0.2 above the typical 6.5 line. This minimal cushion explains why unders hit 54.5% of the time despite the slightly elevated average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target St. Brown reception unders when lines are 6.5 or higher in divisional matchups, particularly when he's in an under streak. Avoid in potential blowout scenarios where garbage time could inflate targets.