Amon-Ra St. Brown's receptions props present a slight value edge on unders, hitting just 48.6% of the time over 35 games. His 7.17 average exceeds typical lines by half a reception, but the -1.8% under ROI suggests modest profitability backing the under.
Expert Analysis
St. Brown's reception totals reveal a fascinating disconnect between production and market expectations. Over 35 games spanning nearly two seasons, he's averaged 7.17 receptions while hitting overs at a 48.6% clip—a clear indication that oddsmakers consistently undervalue his floor. The half-reception differential between his average and typical lines creates systematic value, particularly when considering his role as Detroit's primary slot weapon. His target share remains remarkably stable regardless of game script, as the Lions utilize him extensively in both catch-up situations and when protecting leads. The 17-18 over-under record suggests books have struggled to properly calibrate his lines, often setting numbers that reflect his ceiling rather than his consistent weekly output. What makes St. Brown particularly appealing for under bettors is his predictable usage pattern—he rarely explodes for double-digit catches but consistently delivers 6-8 receptions. The longest over streak of just five games indicates he doesn't get hot for extended periods, while his longest under streak of three games shows he bounces back quickly from quiet performances. This consistency, combined with the slight market inefficiency, creates a sustainable edge for disciplined bettors willing to back the under when lines exceed his historical average.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 51.4% under hit rate combined with -1.8% ROI on unders suggests modest but consistent value. St. Brown's reliable 7.17 average creates opportunities when books set lines at 7.5 or higher, particularly given his consistent role in Detroit's offense. Primary risk is the Lions' explosive offensive potential inflating his target share in shootouts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 6.5 | 14.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amon-Ra St. Brown's Receptions prop record all games?
St. Brown has gone over his receptions prop 17 times and under 18 times across 35 games, resulting in a 48.6% over rate. His average of 7.17 receptions consistently exceeds typical betting lines by approximately half a reception.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions all games?
Lean toward betting under on St. Brown's receptions props. The 51.4% under hit rate and -1.8% ROI on unders indicates slight value, especially when lines are set at 7.5 or higher relative to his 7.17 average.
What's Amon-Ra St. Brown's average Receptions all games?
St. Brown averages 7.17 receptions per game across 35 contests, which runs 0.5 receptions above typical betting lines. This consistent differential between his production and market expectations creates potential betting value for sharp bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target St. Brown reception unders when lines exceed 7.5, particularly after over streaks or following high-target games. His consistent slot role and 7.17 average make inflated lines the optimal betting spots for under backers.