Amon-Ra St. Brown delivers exceptional home value with a 58.8% over rate (10-7-0) and +12.6 yard differential above his typical line. The Lions receiver averages 90.76 receiving yards at Ford Field versus a 78.15 baseline, generating +12.3% ROI on overs. Strong lean over on home receiving yards props.
Expert Analysis
St. Brown's home dominance stems from Detroit's offensive rhythm and crowd energy at Ford Field. The 12.6-yard average differential above his typical line reflects consistent target volume and efficiency in familiar surroundings. His 90.76 yards per home game represents a meaningful 16% bump over his standard 78.15 line, suggesting books consistently undervalue his home performance. The trend shows solid persistence across 17 games spanning multiple seasons, indicating structural rather than random factors. Detroit's home offensive approach appears to favor St. Brown's skill set, whether through increased slot work, better protection allowing longer routes to develop, or simply the comfort of familiar surroundings. The +12.3% ROI on overs demonstrates clear market inefficiency, while the modest sample size provides enough data for confidence without being so large that books have fully adjusted. The recent one-game over streak is less relevant than the broader pattern of consistent home outperformance. Risk factors include potential regression to mean and the possibility that recent line adjustments have closed this edge, but the historical data suggests a sustainable home field advantage for St. Brown's receiving production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. St. Brown's home receiving yards props offer consistent value based on his 90.76 average versus typical 78.15 lines. The 58.8% over rate and +12.3% ROI indicate a sustainable edge rooted in Detroit's home offensive efficiency. Ideal conditions include reasonable lines under 82 yards and games with projected normal game scripts. Main risk is books catching up to this trend and inflating home lines.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 76.5 | 137.0 | +60.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 84.5 | 77.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 68.5 | 193.0 | +124.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 69.5 | 43.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 70.5 | 73.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 74.5 | 161.0 | +86.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 73.5 | 7.0 | -66.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 77.5 | 45.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 82.5 | 119.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 84.5 | 13.0 | -71.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 91.5 | 77.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 87.5 | 110.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 72.5 | 112.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 81.5 | 95.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 84.5 | 77.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Amon-Ra St. Brown props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amon-Ra St. Brown's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
St. Brown's receiving yards prop record at home games is 10-7-0 for overs, hitting 58.8% of the time. He averages 90.76 receiving yards at Ford Field, consistently outperforming his typical 78.15 baseline by 12.6 yards per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards home games?
Bet over on St. Brown's receiving yards at home games. The data shows a clear 58.8% over rate with +12.3% ROI, while unders lose -21.4%. His home average of 90.76 yards typically exceeds standard lines around 78 yards.
What's Amon-Ra St. Brown's average Receiving Yards home games?
St. Brown averages 90.76 receiving yards in home games, which is 12.6 yards above his typical betting line of 78.15. This represents a 16% boost to his production at Ford Field compared to his baseline expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Best time to bet St. Brown's receiving yards overs is at home when lines stay below 82 yards. Target games with normal game scripts and reasonable weather. Avoid when books inflate home lines significantly above his 78-yard baseline.