Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving yards props in conference games show a clear under bias, hitting just 46.2% overs across 26 games with a -0.8 yard average differential. The under has generated positive 2.8% ROI while overs lose 11.9%, creating a sustainable edge for contrarian bettors.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a systematic mispricing in St. Brown's conference game props, with oddsmakers consistently overvaluing his yardage production by nearly a full yard per game. This 77.42 average against 78.19 lines suggests books are factoring his overall season performance without properly adjusting for conference-specific dynamics. NFC North divisional games often feature tighter coverage schemes and more physical defensive backs who can disrupt St. Brown's underneath routes that drive his volume. The Lions' conference opponents also tend to employ more aggressive game plans, potentially limiting Detroit's passing volume in favor of ball control. The 54 under percentage with positive ROI indicates this isn't random variance but a persistent market inefficiency. St. Brown's role as Detroit's primary slot receiver makes him vulnerable to bracket coverage from conference rivals who've had multiple opportunities to study his tendencies. The current one-game over streak represents typical noise rather than trend reversal, especially given the historical four-game under streak demonstrates the pattern's staying power. Books appear slow to adjust these lines downward despite consistent evidence.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 54% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a measurable edge against conference opponents who've game-planned specifically for St. Brown's slot-heavy usage. Target unders when lines exceed 78 yards, particularly in divisional matchups where defensive familiarity limits explosive plays. Main risk is Detroit's offensive evolution potentially changing his role mid-season.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 76.5 | 137.0 | +60.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 84.5 | 77.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 72.5 | 60.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 71.5 | 70.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 69.5 | 43.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 70.5 | 73.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 65.5 | 56.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 74.5 | 112.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 78.5 | 37.0 | -41.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 77.5 | 45.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 76.5 | 75.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 82.5 | 119.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 84.5 | 13.0 | -71.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 86.5 | 87.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 91.5 | 77.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amon-Ra St. Brown's Receiving Yards prop record conference games?
St. Brown goes under his receiving yards prop 54% of the time in conference games, posting a 12-14 over/under record across 26 games. His props average 78.19 yards while he delivers 77.42, creating consistent value on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards conference games?
Bet under on St. Brown's receiving yards in conference games. The data shows 54% under rate with positive 2.8% ROI, while overs lose money at -11.9%. Conference defenses consistently limit him below market expectations.
What's Amon-Ra St. Brown's average Receiving Yards conference games?
St. Brown averages 77.42 receiving yards in conference games compared to typical prop lines of 78.19 yards. This 0.8-yard negative differential represents consistent value, as books overprice his production against familiar divisional opponents.
How reliable is this trend?
Target St. Brown receiving yards unders in NFC North divisional games when lines exceed 78 yards. Conference opponents who've studied his film extensively create the strongest betting spots, particularly when defensive coordinators can bracket his slot routes.