Amari Cooper has been a consistent under performer in receptions, hitting the over just 30% of the time across his last 10 games while averaging 2.5 catches against a 3.0 line. The Bills receiver's struggles to reach even modest reception totals present a clear edge on the under.
Expert Analysis
Cooper's reception struggles tell a story of diminished target share in Buffalo's evolving offensive system. The veteran receiver is averaging half a reception below his typical line, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to his reduced role alongside Stefon Diggs and emerging receivers. This isn't variance - it's systematic underutilization. Cooper's 30% over rate indicates he's consistently failing to reach even conservative projections, likely due to Buffalo's increasingly run-heavy approach and Josh Allen's tendency to spread targets around. The -42.7% ROI on overs is particularly damning, showing consistent line inflation. His longest under streak of three games demonstrates the persistence of this trend, while his current single-game over streak appears to be an outlier rather than a reversal. The Bills' offensive evolution has clearly impacted Cooper's target ceiling, making him a prime candidate for under betting. Without significant injury news to other receivers or major game script advantages, Cooper's reception props appear systematically overvalued. The sample size of 10 games provides sufficient data to identify this as a legitimate trend rather than short-term noise.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Cooper's 30% over rate and -0.5 average differential create a clear statistical edge favoring the under. The Bills' reduced reliance on Cooper in the passing game appears structural rather than temporary. Best spots are neutral game scripts where Buffalo can control tempo. Main risk is potential garbage time volume if Buffalo falls behind significantly, though even that hasn't materialized consistently.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amari Cooper's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Cooper has gone over his receptions prop just 3 times in his last 10 games (30% rate) while going under 7 times. His average of 2.5 receptions consistently falls short of typical 3.0 lines, creating a clear statistical edge.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amari Cooper Receptions last 10 games?
Bet the under on Cooper's reception props. His 30% over rate and -0.5 average differential versus the line create consistent value. The under has generated +33.6% ROI compared to devastating -42.7% losses on overs.
What's Amari Cooper's average Receptions last 10 games?
Cooper averages 2.5 receptions over his last 10 games compared to typical 3.0 lines. This half-reception gap represents consistent underperformance and suggests books haven't adjusted to his reduced role in Buffalo's offense.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cooper under props in neutral game scripts where Buffalo can control tempo and limit passing volume. Avoid when Buffalo is expected to trail significantly, as garbage time could inflate his reception totals unexpectedly.