Amari Cooper's reception props present a compelling under opportunity with just 42.9% overs hitting across 28 games. The Buffalo receiver averages 3.89 receptions against a 3.82 line, but the under delivers +9.1% ROI while overs bleed -18.2%. This inefficiency favors systematic under betting.
Expert Analysis
Cooper's reception totals reveal a fascinating disconnect between perception and reality in Buffalo's evolved offensive system. While his 3.89 average barely exceeds the typical 3.82 line, the market consistently overvalues his volume in an offense that has diversified significantly since his Cleveland days. The Bills' emphasis on Stefon Diggs, tight end usage, and Josh Allen's rushing ability naturally caps Cooper's target ceiling. His 42.9% over rate isn't just poor luck—it reflects structural changes in how Buffalo deploys receivers. The -18.2% ROI on overs suggests books haven't fully adjusted to Cooper's reduced role, creating persistent value on unders. The modest +0.1 average differential masks the real story: when Cooper goes under, he tends to go significantly under, while his overs barely clear the number. This pattern suggests the line often sits at his realistic ceiling rather than his floor, making unders the mathematically superior long-term play despite occasional hot streaks.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The +9.1% under ROI combined with a 57.1% hit rate creates sustainable value despite the narrow average differential. Cooper's role in Buffalo's diversified offense naturally limits his reception upside, making books' optimistic lines exploitable. Risk comes from potential target spikes in shootouts or if Buffalo's receiving corps suffers injuries.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amari Cooper's Receptions prop record all games?
Cooper's reception props show a 12-16-0 over/under record across 28 games, hitting overs just 42.9% of the time. This translates to unders cashing at a 57.1% clip, well above the typical 52.4% needed for profitability at standard odds.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amari Cooper Receptions all games?
Bet under on Cooper's reception props. The 57.1% under hit rate generates +9.1% ROI while overs lose -18.2%. Buffalo's offensive structure consistently limits his volume below market expectations, creating systematic value on the under side.
What's Amari Cooper's average Receptions all games?
Cooper averages 3.89 receptions per game against a typical line of 3.82, showing just a +0.1 differential. While he barely exceeds the line on average, the distribution heavily favors significant unders over marginal overs, explaining the poor over performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cooper under bets when Buffalo faces strong defenses or in games with lower totals where target distribution tightens. Avoid unders in potential shootouts or when other Bills receivers are injured, as these scenarios can spike his target share unexpectedly.