Alvin Kamara has been a consistent under play, hitting just 30% of rushing yards overs across his last 10 games while averaging 58.8 yards against a 68.0 line. The -9.2 yard differential and +33.6% ROI on unders signals a clear market inefficiency favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
The Saints' offensive struggles have fundamentally altered Kamara's rushing profile, with the veteran back averaging nearly a full 10 yards below his typical market line. This isn't merely variance—it reflects systemic issues including poor offensive line play, predictable game scripts, and New Orleans falling behind early in games. When teams abandon the run due to negative game flow, Kamara's rushing attempts decrease while his receiving work increases, creating a ceiling on his ground production. The 30% over rate across 10 games represents a significant sample size that suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to the Saints' offensive limitations. Kamara's current two-game under streak aligns with the broader trend, as New Orleans has struggled to establish consistent rushing attacks. The -42.7% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has already identified this edge, while the +33.6% return on unders confirms the sustainability of this approach. Market inefficiencies of this magnitude rarely persist without underlying structural reasons, and the Saints' offensive woes appear unlikely to resolve quickly given their personnel limitations and coaching changes.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 9.2-yard negative differential represents genuine value, particularly when the Saints face competent defenses or fall behind early. Target unders when New Orleans is an underdog or facing teams that can establish early leads, forcing pass-heavy game scripts that limit Kamara's rushing volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 61.5 | 12.0 | -49.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 82.5 | 44.0 | -38.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 64.5 | 112.0 | +47.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 72.5 | 67.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 69.5 | 55.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 71.5 | 155.0 | +83.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 54.5 | 67.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-17 | OPP | 68.5 | 10.0 | -58.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 69.5 | 40.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 65.5 | 26.0 | -39.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alvin Kamara's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Kamara has gone under his rushing yards prop in 7 of his last 10 games (30% over rate), averaging 58.8 yards against a typical 68.0 line for a -9.2 yard differential per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Kamara's rushing yards props. The 70% under rate and +33.6% ROI on unders over 10 games indicates a clear market inefficiency favoring the under side.
What's Alvin Kamara's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Kamara is averaging 58.8 rushing yards over his last 10 games, nearly 10 yards below the typical 68.0 market line, creating consistent value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kamara rushing unders when the Saints are road underdogs or facing strong defenses that can establish early leads, forcing New Orleans into pass-heavy game scripts that limit rushing volume.