Alvin Kamara has hit the over on receiving yards props in exactly 50% of his last 10 games, averaging 36.9 yards against a typical 34.5 line for a modest +2.4 differential. The Saints running back shows slight positive value, but the -4.5% ROI on both sides suggests a balanced market with no clear edge.
Expert Analysis
Kamara's receiving production over the last 10 games reveals a player caught between his dual-threat ceiling and the Saints' evolving offensive identity. The 36.9-yard average represents solid production for a running back, particularly one who's averaged over 50 receptions per season throughout his career. However, the perfectly balanced 5-5 over/under record suggests books have found his range effectively. The +2.4 differential above the typical line indicates Kamara consistently delivers value, but not enough to overcome the juice. His streaky nature—alternating between 3-game over and under runs—reflects game script dependency more than any fundamental shift in usage. New Orleans' inconsistent passing game and Derek Carr's checkdown tendencies should theoretically favor Kamara's receiving volume, yet the flat ROI suggests opposing defenses have adjusted their coverage accordingly. The lack of significant splits data limits our ability to identify optimal spots, making this more about general Saints offensive efficiency than specific matchup advantages. Without clear regression indicators in either direction, this appears to be a fairly-priced market where Kamara's receiving floor remains solid but his ceiling feels capped by the team's overall offensive limitations.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. While Kamara's +2.4 differential above the line shows consistent value delivery, the perfectly balanced 5-5 record and negative ROI on both sides indicate an efficiently priced market. The Saints' offensive inconsistency creates too much game script variance to identify reliable edges. Wait for specific matchup advantages or inflated lines rather than betting the trend blind.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 30.5 | 58.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 37.5 | 35.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 38.5 | 7.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 39.5 | 22.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 40.5 | 54.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 31.5 | 60.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 28.5 | 55.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-17 | OPP | 36.5 | 14.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 30.5 | 24.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 31.5 | 40.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alvin Kamara's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Kamara has gone over his receiving yards prop in exactly 5 of his last 10 games (50.0% hit rate) with a 5-5-0 record. He's averaging 36.9 receiving yards per game during this stretch, showing consistent but not dominant production.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Pass on betting either side. The perfectly balanced 5-5 record and -4.5% ROI on both overs and unders indicate an efficiently priced market with no clear edge. Wait for better spots with inflated lines or favorable matchups.
What's Alvin Kamara's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Kamara is averaging 36.9 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to a typical 34.5 line, creating a +2.4 differential. While this shows he consistently delivers slight value, it's not enough to overcome the betting juice.
How reliable is this trend?
Target games where the Saints are expected to trail and need to throw more, or when facing defenses weak against pass-catching backs. Avoid primetime or weather-impacted games where New Orleans might lean more heavily on their ground game.