Allen Robinson has been a consistent under performer in Detroit, hitting the over on receiving yards just 40% of the time across his last 10 games while averaging 15.4 yards against a 19.7-yard line. The -4.3 yard differential and +14.6% ROI on unders creates a compelling fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Robinson's underwhelming production stems from his diminished role in Detroit's evolving offense, where he's become more of a complementary piece than the primary target he once was. The 15.4-yard average against consistently inflated lines suggests sportsbooks haven't fully adjusted to his reduced usage in a crowded Lions receiving corps featuring Amon-Ra St. Brown and emerging talents. His 40% over rate indicates a systematic mispricing rather than random variance, particularly when considering Detroit's run-heavy approach in favorable game scripts. The -23.6% ROI on overs tells the story of a player whose market perception hasn't caught up to his actual role. Robinson's age-related decline and the Lions' offensive philosophy that prioritizes multiple weapons over force-feeding any single receiver creates a sustainable edge. The consistency of this trend across 10 games, with no dramatic splits suggesting situational variance, indicates this isn't a small-sample fluke but rather a reflection of Robinson's current NFL reality. Bettors should expect continued line inflation based on name recognition while his actual production remains modest.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Robinson's consistent underperformance against inflated lines creates value, though the modest 14.6% ROI suggests the edge isn't overwhelming. Target spots where Detroit projects to control games or when Robinson faces strong slot coverage that could further limit his opportunities. Main risk is a potential breakout game that could temporarily shift his role, but his track record suggests betting unders remains the profitable approach.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 13.5 | 0.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 13.5 | 36.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 13.5 | 19.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-07 | OPP | 11.5 | 21.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-02 | OPP | 13.5 | 10.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 17.5 | 0.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 23.5 | 7.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 25.5 | 29.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 30.5 | 8.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 34.5 | 24.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Allen Robinson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Allen Robinson's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Robinson has gone over his receiving yards prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% hit rate), going under 6 times. He's averaging 15.4 receiving yards against lines averaging 19.7 yards, creating a -4.3 yard differential that favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Allen Robinson Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Robinson's receiving yards props. The data strongly supports this approach with a +14.6% ROI on unders compared to -23.6% on overs. His consistent underperformance against inflated lines creates sustainable value for under bettors in most situations.
What's Allen Robinson's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Robinson is averaging 15.4 receiving yards over his last 10 games, which falls 4.3 yards short of his average closing line of 19.7 yards. This significant gap indicates sportsbooks are consistently overvaluing his expected production in Detroit's offense.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Robinson under props when Detroit is favored by 7+ points or facing weak run defenses, as the Lions will likely emphasize their ground game. Also look for value when he's matched against strong slot corners who can limit his underneath routes.