Allen Robinson's receiving yards props present a clear under edge with a 58.3% under rate across 12 games. The veteran receiver averages just 19.17 yards against lines averaging 20.75, creating a consistent -1.6 yard gap that translates to +11.4% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
Robinson's underwhelming production reflects his diminished role in Detroit's offense and the natural decline of a receiver entering his age-31 season. The Lions' run-heavy approach under Dan Campbell limits passing volume, particularly for complementary receivers like Robinson who sits behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds in the pecking order. His 19.17 yard average against 20.75 lines suggests oddsmakers are still pricing him based on past reputation rather than current usage patterns. The consistency of this underperformance—hitting under in 7 of 12 games with a -20.4% over ROI—indicates a systematic mispricing rather than random variance. Robinson's role as a possession receiver in short-yardage situations further caps his ceiling, as Detroit typically relies on their running game and primary receivers for explosive plays. The aging receiver's decreased separation ability and reduced target share create a perfect storm for continued under performance. While small sample size presents some risk, the underlying usage patterns and offensive philosophy suggest this trend has staying power throughout Robinson's tenure in Detroit.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Robinson's consistent underperformance against inflated lines creates legitimate value on the under. The -1.6 yard differential and 58.3% under rate indicate oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced role in Detroit's offense. Target unders when lines exceed 20 yards, as his current usage rarely supports higher totals. Main risk is potential injury to higher-usage receivers that could temporarily boost Robinson's target share.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 13.5 | 0.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 13.5 | 36.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 13.5 | 19.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-07 | OPP | 11.5 | 21.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-02 | OPP | 13.5 | 10.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 17.5 | 0.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 23.5 | 7.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 25.5 | 29.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 30.5 | 8.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 34.5 | 24.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-18 | OPP | 30.5 | 12.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 21.5 | 64.0 | +42.5 | OVER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Allen Robinson's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Allen Robinson has gone under his receiving yards prop in 7 of 12 games (58.3% under rate) with a 5-7 over/under record. His props show a -20.4% ROI on overs versus +11.4% ROI on unders, indicating consistent underperformance against the betting market.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Allen Robinson Receiving Yards all games?
Bet under on Allen Robinson's receiving yards props. He averages 19.17 yards against lines of 20.75, creating a -1.6 yard edge. The 58.3% under rate and +11.4% under ROI demonstrate clear value betting against inflated lines that haven't adjusted to his reduced role.
What's Allen Robinson's average Receiving Yards all games?
Allen Robinson averages 19.17 receiving yards per game compared to his average prop line of 20.75 yards. This -1.6 yard differential consistently favors the under, as his current usage in Detroit's offense rarely supports the yardage totals oddsmakers are setting.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Robinson receiving yards unders when lines exceed 20 yards, as his current role rarely supports higher totals. Avoid betting when Detroit faces pass-heavy game scripts or when higher-usage receivers are injured, as these situations could temporarily boost Robinson's target share and yardage potential.