Alexander Mattison has been a brutal under play, hitting just 1 of 10 overs (10.0%) while averaging 28.7 rushing yards against a 40.5 line. The -11.8 yard differential and current 6-game under streak signal systemic issues with his role and the Raiders' rushing attack that make the under the clear play.
Expert Analysis
Mattison's rushing yard struggles reflect deeper structural problems within Las Vegas's offensive system. Averaging 28.7 yards against a 40.5 line represents a massive 29.1% shortfall, suggesting oddsmakers have been consistently overvaluing his involvement in a dysfunctional Raiders ground game. The 1-9 over/under record isn't just bad luck—it's systematic underperformance tied to poor offensive line play, negative game scripts, and limited touches in a committee backfield. The current 6-game under streak indicates this isn't a temporary slump but rather a reflection of Mattison's diminished role as the season progressed. Las Vegas has frequently found themselves in catch-up situations, limiting rushing attempts, while Mattison has struggled to generate explosive plays when given opportunities. The 71.8% ROI on unders demonstrates the market's slow adjustment to his reduced effectiveness. Most concerning for over bettors is that even in favorable matchups, Mattison has failed to approach his line, suggesting the issues are player-specific rather than matchup-dependent. The consistency of this underperformance across different opponents and game situations indicates a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and on-field reality.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Mattison's 10.0% over rate and -11.8 yard differential represent one of the season's most reliable under trends. The Raiders' offensive struggles, combined with Mattison's limited explosive play ability, create a systematic edge for under bettors. Target this when the line sits at 35+ yards, as even modest increases amplify an already significant gap between expectation and performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 40.5 | 20.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 44.5 | 32.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 44.5 | 27.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 43.5 | 19.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 55.5 | 36.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 38.5 | 15.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 38.5 | 92.0 | +53.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 53.5 | 38.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 24.5 | 7.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 21.5 | 1.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Alexander Mattison props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alexander Mattison's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Mattison has gone over his rushing yards prop just once in his last 10 games (1-9, 10.0%), averaging 28.7 yards against a typical 40.5 line for a devastating -11.8 yard differential that's been money for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Mattison's 1-9 over record and -11.8 yard differential represent one of the season's most reliable trends, with the Raiders' offensive struggles creating systematic underperformance against inflated lines.
What's Alexander Mattison's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Mattison averages just 28.7 rushing yards over his last 10 games against a typical 40.5 line, creating a massive -11.8 yard gap that represents a 29.1% shortfall from market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mattison rushing yards unders when lines sit at 35+ yards, especially in games where the Raiders face strong defenses or are expected to trail early, forcing them into pass-heavy game scripts.