Alexander Mattison's rushing yards props at home present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 18.2% of overs across 11 games with a brutal -10.6 yard average differential. The Raiders running back averages only 32.45 rushing yards at home against lines averaging 43.05, creating consistent value on unders with a remarkable +56.2% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Mattison's home rushing struggles reflect the Raiders' offensive dysfunction and his role limitations in Las Vegas. The 32.45-yard average against 43.05-yard lines suggests oddsmakers consistently overvalue his rushing floor, particularly at home where the Raiders have been less competitive. The current five-game under streak isn't an anomaly but rather indicative of systemic issues with the Raiders' ground game and Mattison's usage patterns. His 18.2% over rate at home is remarkably low for a starting running back, pointing to either game script problems where Las Vegas falls behind early, or fundamental issues with the offensive line's run blocking at Allegiant Stadium. The -65.3% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently books have mispriced these props upward. While regression is always possible with such extreme numbers, the underlying factors—poor offensive line play, frequent negative game scripts, and Mattison's own limitations as a between-the-tackles runner—suggest this trend has staying power. The lack of a single multi-game over streak reinforces that this isn't variance but a predictable pattern tied to the Raiders' home offensive struggles.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Mattison's home rushing props offer exceptional value with books consistently setting lines 10+ yards above his actual production. Target unders when the line exceeds 40 yards, as the Raiders' offensive struggles at home create predictable game scripts that limit rushing opportunities. The primary risk is a blowout win where garbage time rushing inflates his numbers, but Las Vegas's 2-9 record suggests such scenarios remain unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 40.5 | 20.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 44.5 | 27.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 38.5 | 15.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 24.5 | 7.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 20.5 | 17.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 44.5 | 52.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 47.5 | 27.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-23 | OPP | 45.5 | 39.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 52.5 | 26.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 50.5 | 93.0 | +42.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 64.5 | 34.0 | -30.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alexander Mattison's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Mattison's rushing yards props at home show a 2-9-0 over/under record (18.2% overs) across 11 games. He averages 32.45 rushing yards against lines averaging 43.05, creating a significant -10.6 yard differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards home games?
Bet under on Mattison's rushing yards at home games. The data shows exceptional value with +56.2% ROI on unders and only 18.2% over rate. His consistent underperformance at home makes unders the clear profitable play.
What's Alexander Mattison's average Rushing Yards home games?
Mattison averages 32.45 rushing yards in home games compared to typical lines around 43.05 yards. This -10.6 yard differential represents significant value, as he consistently falls short of oddsmakers' expectations by double digits at Allegiant Stadium.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mattison rushing unders when home lines exceed 40 yards, especially against stronger defenses or when the Raiders are underdogs. His five-game under streak and poor home offensive performance create the most reliable betting opportunities.