Alexander Mattison has hit the over on his receptions prop just 50% of the time over his last 10 games, averaging 2.0 receptions against a 2.2 line. This -0.2 differential suggests the market is slightly overvaluing his pass-catching role. Lean under on future props.
Expert Analysis
Mattison's receiving production reveals a running back whose pass-catching role is more limited than oddsmakers anticipate. The 2.0 reception average against a 2.2 line indicates books are pricing in roughly one extra target per game that hasn't materialized consistently. This differential stems from Mattison's traditional between-the-tackles running style and Las Vegas's offensive philosophy that favors established pass-catching backs in third-down situations. The even 5-5 over/under record masks underlying volatility, with Mattison's reception totals heavily dependent on game script and target distribution. His receiving usage appears capped by the Raiders' preference for utilizing more natural pass-catchers in obvious throwing situations. The -4.5% ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing despite the slight under bias. Most concerning for over bettors is Mattison's inability to consistently exceed the modest 2.2 reception threshold, indicating his role lacks the target security needed for reliable over production. The recent under streak, while short, aligns with his season-long pattern of underwhelming pass-catching volume relative to market expectations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.2 reception differential against the line suggests books are overestimating Mattison's pass-catching involvement in Las Vegas's offense. Target this prop when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, particularly in games where the Raiders are favored and likely to emphasize ground control. Primary risk is positive game script forcing increased passing volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alexander Mattison's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Alexander Mattison has gone 5-5 on his receptions over/under in his last 10 games, hitting the over exactly 50% of the time. His average of 2.0 receptions falls 0.2 short of the typical 2.2 line, indicating slight under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alexander Mattison Receptions last 10 games?
Lean under on Alexander Mattison's receptions props. His 2.0 average trails the 2.2 line consistently, and his traditional running style limits pass-catching opportunities. Target lines of 2.5 or higher for better value on the under.
What's Alexander Mattison's average Receptions last 10 games?
Alexander Mattison averages 2.0 receptions over his last 10 games, which falls 0.2 receptions below the typical market line of 2.2. This differential suggests books are overvaluing his receiving role in the Raiders offense.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Alexander Mattison's receptions under when the Raiders are favored and likely to control the game on the ground. Target lines of 2.5+ receptions for maximum value, avoiding games with negative game scripts that force passing volume.