Alexander Mattison's reception props show a razor-thin edge with 9-8 overs (52.9%) across 17 games, averaging 2.35 catches against a 2.32 line. The minimal 0.03 differential and tepid +1.1% over ROI suggest a largely efficient market with limited exploitable value.
Expert Analysis
Mattison's reception data reveals a remarkably balanced prop that hovers near true odds, making it a challenging spot for consistent profit. The 52.9% over rate barely exceeds the 52.4% breakeven needed to overcome standard juice, while the minuscule 0.03 average differential indicates books have dialed in his usage patterns accurately. The concerning -10.2% under ROI suggests the market may actually be slightly biased toward the over, creating negative expected value on unders despite hitting 47% of the time. Without situational splits to identify favorable spots, bettors are essentially flipping coins on a tightly-calibrated number. Mattison's role as a complementary back likely contributes to this consistency - he's not a primary target who sees wild usage swings, nor is he completely ignored in the passing game. This creates a narrow band of outcomes that books can price efficiently. The recent under streak of one game provides no meaningful pattern, and the balanced longest streaks (3 overs, 2 unders) reinforce the random walk nature of this prop. Vegas has essentially solved Mattison's reception props, leaving little room for systematic exploitation.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. The market has efficiently priced Mattison's reception props, offering minimal edge despite the slight over lean. The razor-thin 0.03 differential and poor under ROI indicate books understand his usage patterns well. Without situational advantages to exploit, this becomes a coin flip with negative expected value on both sides.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alexander Mattison's Receptions prop record all games?
Mattison has hit over his receptions prop 9 times in 17 games (52.9%) with an 8-9 under record. His average of 2.35 receptions barely exceeds the typical 2.32 line, showing remarkable market efficiency.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alexander Mattison Receptions all games?
Pass on Mattison reception props. The 52.9% over rate provides minimal edge after juice, while the -10.2% under ROI indicates poor value on both sides of this efficiently-priced market.
What's Alexander Mattison's average Receptions all games?
Mattison averages 2.35 receptions per game against a standard 2.32 line, creating just a 0.03 differential. This minimal gap indicates the market has accurately captured his receiving usage patterns.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Mattison reception props without specific situational advantages. The lack of split data and efficient pricing across all games makes this a low-value proposition regardless of timing.