Alexander Mattison's receiving yards props show a perfectly balanced 5-5-0 record over his last 10 games, with his 15.4 average sitting 2.7 yards above typical lines. Despite the positive differential, both over and under bets have produced identical -4.5% ROI, suggesting efficient market pricing with minimal edge either direction.
Expert Analysis
Mattison's receiving production reveals a running back whose pass-catching role has been consistently undervalued by oddsmakers, yet not enough to generate profitable betting opportunities. His 15.4 receiving yards per game average represents a meaningful 21.3% premium over the typical 12.7 line, indicating Las Vegas has carved out a legitimate receiving role for the veteran back. However, the perfectly split 5-5 record and negative ROI on both sides expose the challenge of betting props where volume is inherently volatile. Running back receiving yards are notoriously game-script dependent, with Mattison likely seeing increased targets in negative game scripts but disappearing entirely in blowout wins. The current one-game under streak following a two-game over streak exemplifies this volatility. Without additional context about matchup pace, projected game flow, or Mattison's target share trends, the data suggests oddsmakers have efficiently priced this market. The 2.7-yard positive differential appears to be offset by the high variance nature of situational receiving work, where Mattison can easily swing from zero catches to five targets based purely on game circumstances beyond his individual skill set.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. While Mattison's 15.4 average beats the typical 12.7 line by a significant margin, the perfectly balanced record and negative ROI on both sides indicate efficient market pricing. The high variance nature of running back receiving work makes this prop essentially a coin flip despite the positive differential. Without specific game script or matchup advantages, there's insufficient edge to warrant action on either side.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 14.5 | 6.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 11.5 | 29.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 12.5 | 50.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 18.5 | 0.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 14.5 | 29.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 13.5 | 23.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 11.5 | 0.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 8.5 | 0.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 9.5 | 11.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 12.5 | 6.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alexander Mattison's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Alexander Mattison has gone 5-5-0 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of his overs. His 15.4 receiving yards average sits 2.7 yards above the typical 12.7 line, showing consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Pass on Alexander Mattison's receiving yards props. Despite his average beating lines by 2.7 yards, the perfectly split 5-5 record and -4.5% ROI on both sides indicate efficient pricing with no clear edge either direction.
What's Alexander Mattison's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Alexander Mattison averages 15.4 receiving yards over his last 10 games, which is 2.7 yards above the typical 12.7 line. This 21.3% premium suggests a legitimate receiving role but hasn't translated to profitable betting opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Alexander Mattison receiving yards props in projected negative game scripts where Las Vegas trails early. Running backs see increased target volume when teams abandon the run, but avoid betting without clear game flow indicators.