Alec Pierce has delivered exceptional value on receiving yards overs, hitting 55.2% with a massive +12.6 yard average differential over 29 games. The Indianapolis receiver averages 40.41 yards against lines typically set at 27.81, creating consistent betting opportunities. Strong lean over on Pierce receiving yards props.
Expert Analysis
Pierce's receiving yards props present one of the more compelling over opportunities in the NFL market. The 40.41 yard average against a 27.81 line represents a significant market inefficiency that has persisted across nearly two full seasons. This differential suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue Pierce's role in Indianapolis's passing attack. The 55.2% over rate combined with positive ROI indicates this isn't random variance but a structural edge. Pierce's profile as a deep threat creates natural volatility that favors overs - when he connects on downfield targets, he easily exceeds modest yardage lines, but when he doesn't, he still contributes enough underneath work to stay competitive with the number. The Colts' offensive system under various coordinators has consistently featured Pierce in ways that generate more receiving volume than the market anticipates. His ability to contribute both as a possession receiver and vertical threat makes him less dependent on game script than pure deep threats. The consistency of this edge over 29 games spanning different seasons, quarterbacks, and game situations suggests genuine market mispricing rather than temporary circumstances. However, the modest 5.3% ROI indicates the market is slowly adjusting, making timing and line shopping increasingly important.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Pierce's 12.6-yard average differential over nearly 30 games represents a clear market inefficiency worth exploiting. The best spots come when lines stay in the mid-to-high 20s, where his dual-threat ability as both possession receiver and downfield target creates multiple paths to success. Main risk is the modest ROI suggesting the market is gradually correcting this edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 26.5 | 122.0 | +95.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 26.5 | 0.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 37.5 | 16.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 28.5 | 39.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 22.5 | 74.0 | +51.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 34.5 | 81.0 | +46.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 23.5 | 41.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 28.5 | 11.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 24.5 | 15.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 25.5 | 134.0 | +108.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 26.5 | 9.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 30.5 | 44.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 30.5 | 125.0 | +94.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 28.5 | 0.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 27.5 | 58.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Alec Pierce props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alec Pierce's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Pierce has gone over his receiving yards prop in 16 of 29 games (55.2%) with a 16-13-0 record. He averages 40.41 receiving yards per game against lines typically set around 27.81 yards, creating a significant +12.6 yard differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alec Pierce Receiving Yards all games?
Lean over on Pierce receiving yards props. His 55.2% over rate and massive +12.6 yard average differential represent a clear market inefficiency. Target lines in the mid-to-high 20s for maximum value on this consistent edge.
What's Alec Pierce's average Receiving Yards all games?
Pierce averages 40.41 receiving yards per game compared to typical prop lines of 27.81 yards. This +12.6 yard differential represents one of the larger gaps between performance and market expectation among regular NFL receivers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pierce overs when lines stay in the 25-30 yard range, where his dual-threat ability creates maximum edge. Avoid when lines climb above 35 yards or during potential blowout scenarios favoring heavy run usage.