AJ Dillon's rushing yards prop shows modest over value with a 54.5% hit rate across 11 games, averaging 40.0 yards against a 37.86 average line. The +2.1 yard differential and positive 4.1% ROI on overs suggests consistent line inefficiency. Lean over in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a subtle but exploitable edge in AJ Dillon's rushing yards market, driven primarily by sportsbooks consistently undervaluing his floor production. Dillon's 40.0 yard average against a 37.86 line represents meaningful value, particularly when considering his role as Green Bay's primary short-yardage and goal-line back creates consistent opportunities for chunk gains. The 54.5% over rate indicates books haven't fully adjusted to his expanded workload following Aaron Jones' reduced snap share in certain packages. Most importantly, the positive ROI on overs (+4.1%) while unders show significant losses (-13.2%) suggests this isn't random variance but systematic underpricing. Dillon's recent three-game over streak followed by the current single-game streak shows the volatility inherent in his usage, but the underlying fundamentals remain sound. His rushing production benefits from Green Bay's improved offensive line play and Matt LaFleur's commitment to establishing the run game. The main concern is game script dependency - Dillon's value diminishes significantly in negative game scripts where the Packers abandon the ground game early. However, Green Bay's competitive season and balanced offensive approach has minimized these scenarios, making the over the preferred side in neutral to positive game environments.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The consistent +2.1 yard edge over market lines and positive 4.1% ROI indicates systematic undervaluation of Dillon's rushing floor. Target overs when Green Bay is favored or in pick'em games where game script supports balanced offensive attack. Main risk is negative game script forcing pass-heavy approach, but Packers' competitive positioning limits these scenarios.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 24.5 | 27.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 27.5 | 12.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 49.5 | 73.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 46.5 | 43.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 27.5 | 29.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 27.5 | 70.0 | +42.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 31.5 | 40.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 42.5 | 11.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 38.5 | 61.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 57.5 | 55.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 43.5 | 19.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is AJ Dillon's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
AJ Dillon has gone over his rushing yards prop in 6 of 11 games (54.5%) with a 6-5-0 record. He averages 40.0 rushing yards compared to an average line of 37.86, showing consistent production above market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on AJ Dillon Rushing Yards all games?
Lean over on AJ Dillon's rushing yards props. The +2.1 yard differential and positive 4.1% ROI on overs indicates systematic line undervaluation. Target overs when Green Bay is competitive and game script supports balanced offense.
What's AJ Dillon's average Rushing Yards all games?
AJ Dillon averages 40.0 rushing yards across all games, which is 2.1 yards above his average prop line of 37.86. This consistent edge suggests sportsbooks are undervaluing his rushing floor production.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities come when Green Bay is favored or in competitive games where balanced offensive approach is likely. Avoid when Packers are significant underdogs facing potential negative game script that forces pass-heavy attack.