Aidan O'Connell's passing touchdown props have delivered consistent value with a 60.0% over rate (9-6-0) and a strong +14.6% ROI on overs across 15 games. The Raiders quarterback averages 1.07 touchdowns against a 1.03 line, creating a small but meaningful edge that suggests sustainable profitability on the over.
Expert Analysis
O'Connell's touchdown production reflects the reality of a developing quarterback in a system that generates scoring opportunities through volume rather than efficiency. His 1.07 average against a 1.03 line represents a modest but consistent edge that has translated into profitable results. The 60.0% over rate suggests books are slightly undervaluing his touchdown potential, likely due to his reputation as a game manager rather than a dynamic scorer. The +14.6% ROI on overs indicates this isn't random variance but a genuine market inefficiency. O'Connell benefits from the Raiders' tendency to lean on passing near the goal line, particularly in competitive games where they're forced to keep pace. His touchdown production shows remarkable consistency without extreme outliers in either direction, suggesting the trend has staying power. The 15-game sample provides adequate data to identify a pattern, though bettors should monitor any coaching changes or offensive philosophy shifts that could impact red zone usage. The fact that his longest over streak is just three games indicates sustainable, non-streaky production that won't trigger major line adjustments.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The combination of a 60.0% hit rate and +14.6% ROI creates a legitimate edge on O'Connell touchdown overs. Target games where the Raiders are expected to be competitive or trailing, as these scenarios force more aggressive red zone play-calling. The primary risk is the Raiders' inconsistent offensive line play limiting sustained drives, but the data suggests O'Connell finds ways to produce touchdowns even in suboptimal conditions.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aidan O'Connell's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Aidan O'Connell has hit the over on his passing touchdowns prop in 9 of 15 games (60.0%) with a 9-6-0 record. He's averaging 1.07 touchdowns per game against lines typically set at 1.03, generating a +14.6% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aidan O'Connell Passing TDs all games?
Bet the over on O'Connell's passing touchdowns. His 60.0% over rate and +14.6% ROI indicate a clear edge, particularly in competitive games where the Raiders are forced to throw near the goal line rather than rely on ground-and-pound.
What's Aidan O'Connell's average Passing TDs all games?
O'Connell averages 1.07 passing touchdowns per game across his 15-game sample. This sits just above the typical line of 1.03, creating a small but consistent edge that has translated into profitable over results for bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target O'Connell touchdown overs in competitive games or when the Raiders are slight underdogs. These scenarios force more aggressive offensive play-calling and red zone passing, maximizing his touchdown opportunities compared to blowout wins where they run more.