Aaron Rodgers has hit the over on passing yards just 50% of the time across 18 games, averaging 216.5 yards against lines averaging 229.17. This 12.7-yard negative differential signals consistent underperformance, making the under the preferred side.
Expert Analysis
Rodgers' passing yards trend reveals a quarterback operating well below market expectations, creating systematic value on the under. The 216.5-yard average against 229.17 lines represents a meaningful 12.7-yard gap that persists across a substantial 18-game sample. This isn't variance—it's a structural issue reflecting the Jets' conservative offensive approach and Rodgers' diminished arm strength at age 40. The even 9-9 over/under record masks the true edge, as books consistently overvalue his historical reputation while ignoring current reality. Rodgers has struggled with the Jets' limited receiving corps and predictable play-calling, leading to shorter completions and fewer explosive plays. The -4.5% ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing at current numbers, but the persistent yardage differential indicates books haven't fully adjusted. His alternating streaks of 5 overs and 5 unders show he's capable of hot stretches, but the underlying metrics suggest regression toward his diminished mean. Without significant offensive upgrades or schematic changes, this trend should continue favoring unders, particularly when lines exceed 225 yards.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 12.7-yard negative differential provides consistent value despite the even record. Rodgers' current skill level and the Jets' offensive limitations create a systematic disconnect between perception and reality. Target unders when lines exceed 220 yards, but avoid in potential shootout spots where game script could force higher volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 227.5 | 274.0 | +46.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 220.5 | 112.0 | -108.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 242.5 | 256.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 230.5 | 289.0 | +58.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 234.5 | 339.0 | +104.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 219.5 | 185.0 | -34.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 236.5 | 184.0 | -52.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 244.5 | 151.0 | -93.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 232.5 | 211.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 239.5 | 233.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 225.5 | 276.0 | +50.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 217.5 | 294.0 | +76.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 223.5 | 244.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 220.5 | 225.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 215.5 | 281.0 | +65.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Rodgers's Passing Yards prop record all games?
Aaron Rodgers has gone over his passing yards prop 9 times and under 9 times across 18 games, posting a perfectly even 50% over rate with identical -4.5% ROI on both sides.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards all games?
Lean under on Rodgers' passing yards props. His 216.5-yard average runs 12.7 yards below typical lines, creating consistent value on unders despite the even win-loss record.
What's Aaron Rodgers's average Passing Yards all games?
Rodgers averages 216.5 passing yards per game, running 12.7 yards below the average closing line of 229.17. This significant gap represents systematic underperformance relative to market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Rodgers passing yards unders when lines exceed 220 yards, particularly in games with neutral or negative game scripts where the Jets won't be forced into high-volume passing situations.