Aaron Rodgers has quietly delivered exceptional passing touchdown value this season, hitting the over in 58.8% of games with a +12.3% ROI. His 1.65 average against a 1.5 line creates consistent edge opportunities. Lean Over on Rodgers touchdown props in most spots.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Aaron Rodgers' touchdown production that many bettors are overlooking. His 1.65 average against the standard 1.5 line represents genuine value, not just variance. What makes this trend particularly noteworthy is the consistency - Rodgers has managed to exceed expectations despite playing behind a porous Jets offensive line and dealing with limited weapons for stretches. The +12.3% ROI on overs demonstrates this isn't just about hitting a few big games; it's sustainable edge creation. His ability to find the end zone through precision rather than volume has kept him ahead of books that seem slow to adjust. The 10-7 over record across 17 games shows resilience through different game scripts, weather conditions, and opponent strengths. Even more encouraging is the streak data showing his longest over run was four games compared to just two games for unders, suggesting he trends toward exceeding rather than falling short. The key driver appears to be Rodgers' red zone efficiency and his knack for salvaging touchdown passes even in otherwise pedestrian offensive performances. Books may be undervaluing his veteran savvy in high-leverage situations, creating this exploitable edge that sharp bettors should recognize.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Rodgers' 1.65 average against 1.5 lines creates legitimate mathematical edge, supported by strong 58.8% over rate and positive ROI. The veteran quarterback consistently finds ways to reach two touchdowns even when the Jets offense struggles. Main risk is potential regression as books adjust, but his red zone precision suggests this edge has staying power through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Rodgers's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Aaron Rodgers has gone over his passing touchdowns prop in 10 of 17 games (58.8%) this season. His over record shows consistent value creation with a +12.3% return on investment, significantly outperforming the under bets which posted a -21.4% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Rodgers Passing TDs all games?
Bet over on Aaron Rodgers passing touchdowns props. His 1.65 average against 1.5 lines creates mathematical edge, supported by 58.8% over rate and positive ROI. The veteran consistently finds the end zone even when the Jets offense struggles overall.
What's Aaron Rodgers's average Passing TDs all games?
Aaron Rodgers averages 1.65 passing touchdowns per game against a typical 1.5 line. This +0.15 differential represents genuine value, as he consistently exceeds the standard betting threshold through red zone efficiency and clutch touchdown passes in key situations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Rodgers touchdown overs consistently rather than waiting for specific spots. His edge appears sustainable across different game scripts and conditions. Focus on standard 1.5 lines where his 1.65 average creates the clearest mathematical advantage for profitable long-term betting.