The data suggests caution when backing the Pittsburgh Steelers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs conference opponent, the Pittsburgh Steelers are just 15-25-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -28.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +28.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record15-25-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size40 games
ROI-28.4%
Units Won-11.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-2-00.0%-36.4%
20154-2-00.0%+27.3%
20162-2-00.0%-4.5%
20171-0-00.0%+90.9%
20181-2-00.0%-36.4%
20190-7-00.0%-100.0%
20204-2-00.0%+27.3%
20211-2-00.0%-36.4%
20221-2-00.0%-36.4%
20230-4-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Steelers' struggles against conference opponents stem from a combination of familiarity breeding defensive preparation and their own strategic limitations being exposed by teams that study them twice yearly. Pittsburgh's defensive-minded identity, while effective against unfamiliar offenses, becomes predictable when AFC rivals have extensive film and multiple opportunities to gameplan specifically against their schemes. The Steelers' tendency to rely heavily on their defense and running game creates a lower ceiling in shootouts, particularly problematic when conference opponents force them into high-scoring affairs. Mike Tomlin's conservative approach in divisional games often leads to closer-than-expected contests, hurting their ability to cover spreads. The team's historical reliance on veteran leadership and experience paradoxically works against them in conference play, where younger, more dynamic offenses can exploit their aging defensive personnel. Additionally, the Steelers' road performance typically suffers due to their blue-collar, home-field dependent style that doesn't translate well in hostile AFC environments. The actionable insight for bettors is to consistently fade Pittsburgh when they're favored against conference opponents, especially on the road. This trend carries the most weight during divisional games and when the Steelers are coming off impressive non-conference performances that inflate public perception.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Pittsburgh Steelers's ATS record as vs conference opponent?

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a 15-25-0 ATS record when playing against conference opponents from 2014-2024. This translates to a 37.5% ATS win rate over this 10-year period.

Is betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers as vs conference opponent profitable?

No, betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers against conference opponents has not been profitable, showing a -28.4% ROI from 2014-2024. This represents significant losses for bettors who consistently backed Pittsburgh in these matchups.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is well below the expected 50% league average for ATS records. The Steelers' 37.5% ATS win rate against conference opponents indicates they have consistently failed to cover spreads in these divisional and conference matchups.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.