The data suggests caution when backing the Pittsburgh Steelers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Pittsburgh Steelers are just 3-9-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -52.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +52.3%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record3-9-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size12 games
ROI-52.3%
Units Won-6.3u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-2-00.0%-100.0%
20150-1-00.0%-100.0%
20161-0-00.0%+90.9%
20170-1-00.0%-100.0%
20190-2-00.0%-100.0%
20201-0-00.0%+90.9%
20210-1-00.0%-100.0%
20221-1-00.0%-4.5%
20230-1-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Steelers' struggles as home favorites following losses stem from a dangerous combination of overconfidence and emotional volatility that has plagued Pittsburgh teams for years. The franchise's proud history creates inflated expectations among both players and oddsmakers when they return to Heinz Field after a setback. This psychological burden becomes particularly acute when the betting public backs Pittsburgh heavily, driving up the spread beyond what their actual performance warrants. Pittsburgh's identity as a physical, defensive-minded team often works against them in bounce-back spots. When their trademark aggression fails to materialize immediately, the team tends to press rather than execute fundamentally sound football. The Steelers have historically been a team that feeds off momentum and crowd energy, but when facing the pressure of being favored at home after disappointing their fanbase, that same passionate atmosphere can become suffocating rather than supportive. The coaching staff's tendency to overcomplicate game plans in response to criticism also contributes to this pattern. Rather than simplifying and returning to basics, Pittsburgh often tries to prove doubters wrong with elaborate schemes that backfire against prepared opponents. This trend carries the most weight when Pittsburgh is favored by more than a field goal at home following a divisional loss, where emotional stakes run highest.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Pittsburgh Steelers's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a 3-9-0 ATS record as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents a 25% ATS win rate in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers as home favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers as home favorites after a loss has not been profitable, with a -52.3% ROI from 2014-2024. This indicates significant losses for bettors backing Pittsburgh in this scenario.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is well below the typical league average of around 50% ATS for home favorites. The Steelers' 25% ATS win rate in this situation represents a notable negative trend compared to standard expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.