Pittsburgh Steelers Home Favorite Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Pittsburgh Steelers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite, the Pittsburgh Steelers are just 7-19-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -48.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +48.6%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2015 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2016 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2017 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2019 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2020 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2021 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2022 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2023 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Steelers' struggles as home favorites stem from a dangerous combination of inflated expectations and their historically inconsistent approach to "lesser" opponents. Pittsburgh has long been a franchise that plays to the level of their competition, often sleepwalking through games against teams they're expected to dominate while elevating their performance against elite opponents. This tendency becomes magnified at Heinz Field, where the betting public consistently overvalues the home field advantage and the team's reputation. Mike Tomlin's coaching philosophy emphasizes physicality and defensive intensity, but these attributes don't always translate to covering spreads against weaker opponents who can hang around through conservative game plans and field goals. The Steelers' offense has frequently been boom-or-bust, capable of explosive plays but also prone to lengthy scoring droughts that keep games closer than the talent disparity suggests they should be. The psychological factor cannot be ignored either. Pittsburgh players and coaches have openly acknowledged their tendency to look ahead to bigger games, particularly division matchups and playoff implications. This creates a perfect storm where public perception drives inflated lines while the team's focus wavers. This trend carries the most weight in early-season home games against non-division opponents when expectations are highest and focus is most scattered.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Pittsburgh Steelers's ATS record as home favorite?
The Pittsburgh Steelers have a 7-19-0 ATS record as home favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 26.9% of games. This represents a significant struggle against expectations when favored at home.
Is betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers as home favorite profitable?
No, betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers as home favorites has been unprofitable with a -48.6% ROI over this period. This poor performance would result in substantial losses for consistent bettors.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is well below the typical 50% ATS rate expected for any team situation. The Steelers' 26.9% cover rate as home favorites is significantly worse than league average, making them a fade candidate in this spot.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.