The data suggests caution when backing the Philadelphia Eagles in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large favorite (-7.5+), the Philadelphia Eagles are just 4-10-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -45.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +45.5%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record4-10-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size14 games
ROI-45.5%
Units Won-6.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20161-3-00.0%-52.3%
20181-0-00.0%+90.9%
20191-1-00.0%-4.5%
20220-1-00.0%-100.0%
20241-5-00.0%-68.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Eagles' struggles as large favorites stem from their tendency to play down to competition and lose focus when expectations are sky-high. Philadelphia has historically been a team that thrives as underdogs or in close contests, drawing energy from adversity rather than dominance. When laying significant points, the Eagles often appear to coast early, allowing inferior opponents to stay competitive and cover spreads even in losses. Nick Sirianni's aggressive coaching style can backfire in blowout situations, as the team sometimes abandons what's working in favor of experimentation or becomes overly conservative with big leads. The Eagles' high-powered offense under Jalen Hurts can be inconsistent when they're expected to dominate, particularly against defensive-minded teams that pack the box and force Philadelphia to execute in the red zone rather than rely on explosive plays. Philadelphia's emotional makeup as a franchise also plays a role - this is a team that feeds off intensity and physicality, qualities that can diminish when games feel predetermined. Their recent playoff success has come through grinding out tough victories, not blowing out overmatched opponents. This trend matters most in divisional games and primetime spots where the Eagles face motivated underdogs with extra preparation time.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philadelphia Eagles's ATS record as large favorite (-7.5+)?

The Philadelphia Eagles have a 4-10-0 ATS record as large favorites (-7.5+) from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 28.6% of these games.

Is betting on the Philadelphia Eagles as large favorite (-7.5+) profitable?

No, betting on the Eagles as large favorites has been unprofitable with a -45.5% ROI. This represents significant losses for bettors backing Philadelphia in these spots.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is well below the typical league average of around 50% ATS for large favorites. The Eagles have been one of the worst large favorites to bet on during this period.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.