The data suggests caution when backing the Philadelphia Eagles in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite, the Philadelphia Eagles are just 3-8-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -47.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +47.9%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record3-8-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size11 games
ROI-47.9%
Units Won-5.3u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-1-00.0%-100.0%
20160-3-00.0%-100.0%
20180-2-00.0%-100.0%
20191-0-00.0%+90.9%
20201-0-00.0%+90.9%
20220-1-00.0%-100.0%
20241-1-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Eagles' struggles as home favorites stem from a dangerous combination of market overreaction and organizational inconsistency that has plagued the franchise for the better part of a decade. Philadelphia's passionate fanbase and high-profile market status often inflate their perceived strength, leading oddsmakers to set lines that don't accurately reflect the team's true capabilities. The Eagles have historically been a franchise prone to dramatic swings in performance, making them particularly vulnerable when the betting public expects dominance at Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia's coaching instability and frequent roster turnover have created an environment where the team rarely lives up to heightened expectations. When installed as home favorites, the Eagles face the dual pressure of satisfying both their demanding fanbase and covering inflated spreads that assume peak performance. The organization's tendency toward inconsistent game-planning and execution becomes magnified in these spots, as opponents arrive motivated to spoil what should be comfortable Eagles victories. Smart bettors should view Philadelphia home favorites with extreme skepticism, particularly when facing divisional opponents or teams coming off disappointing performances that might be undervalued by the market. This trend carries the most weight in primetime games and divisional matchups where emotional factors intensify the Eagles' historical pattern of underperforming elevated expectations.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philadelphia Eagles's ATS record as home favorite?

The Philadelphia Eagles have a 3-8-0 ATS record as home favorites from 2014-2024. This translates to a 27.3% ATS win rate in this situation.

Is betting on the Philadelphia Eagles as home favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Philadelphia Eagles as home favorites has not been profitable, with a -47.9% ROI. This means bettors would have lost nearly half their investment over this period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the league average, as NFL teams typically cover around 50% of spreads. The Eagles' 27.3% ATS rate as home favorites is well below this standard.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.