The public often underestimates the New England Patriots in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as as underdog, the New England Patriots hold a record of 30-11-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +39.7% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $16 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record30-11-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size41 games
ROI+39.7%
Units Won+16.3u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-0-00.0%+90.9%
20153-1-00.0%+43.2%
20162-1-00.0%+27.3%
20171-0-00.0%+90.9%
20183-0-00.0%+90.9%
20194-1-00.0%+52.7%
20205-1-00.0%+59.1%
20213-1-00.0%+43.2%
20222-1-00.0%+27.3%
20231-2-00.0%-36.4%
20244-3-00.0%+9.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Patriots' exceptional performance as underdogs stems from their organizational culture of embracing the "nobody believes in us" mentality that Bill Belichick masterfully cultivated throughout his tenure. When positioned as underdogs, New England historically transformed perceived slights into fuel, with players and coaches viewing unfavorable lines as disrespect rather than accurate market assessment. This psychological edge was amplified by their systematic approach to game preparation, where Belichick's staff excelled at identifying and exploiting weaknesses in opponents who may have been overconfident facing an "inferior" Patriots team. The franchise's championship pedigree created a unique dynamic where veteran leadership could rally younger players around the idea that oddsmakers and public perception didn't reflect their true capabilities. New England's disciplined approach to situational football became even sharper when playing with house money, as they could take calculated risks without the pressure of protecting a favored status. For bettors, the key insight is recognizing that coaching stability and veteran presence amplify underdog value more than raw talent alone. This trend carries the most weight in divisional games and playoff scenarios where familiarity breeds contempt, and experienced teams can leverage superior preparation against opponents who might be looking ahead or taking them lightly.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the New England Patriots's ATS record as as underdog?

The New England Patriots have a 30-11-0 ATS record as underdogs from 2014-2024, covering the spread in 73.2% of games when not favored.

Is betting on the New England Patriots as as underdog profitable?

Yes, betting on the Patriots as underdogs has been highly profitable with a 39.7% ROI over this period. This represents exceptional value when New England is getting points.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Patriots' 73.2% ATS win rate as underdogs significantly exceeds the typical 50% league average. Their 39.7% ROI is exceptionally strong compared to the break-even point of -4.5% (accounting for standard vig).

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.