New England Patriots Primetime Underdog Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the New England Patriots in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as primetime underdog, the New England Patriots hold a record of 30-11-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +39.7% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $16 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2015 | 3-1-0 | 0.0% | +43.2% |
| 2016 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2017 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2018 | 3-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2019 | 4-1-0 | 0.0% | +52.7% |
| 2020 | 5-1-0 | 0.0% | +59.1% |
| 2021 | 3-1-0 | 0.0% | +43.2% |
| 2022 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2023 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2024 | 4-3-0 | 0.0% | +9.1% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Patriots' exceptional performance as primetime underdogs stems from their organizational DNA forged during the Belichick-Brady era. When facing longer odds under the lights, New England historically thrived on the "disrespected" narrative that fueled their preparation and execution. The team's systematic approach to game planning became magnified in primetime spots, where they had extra time to dissect opponents and exploit weaknesses that casual viewers might miss. Belichick's defensive schemes particularly excelled when given additional preparation time, often neutralizing superior offensive talent through creative adjustments and situational awareness. The Patriots' culture of embracing adversity translated perfectly to underdog scenarios, where their methodical approach could frustrate more talented but less disciplined opponents. Their ability to control tempo and limit explosive plays kept games close, allowing their clutch-time execution to shine through. The psychological edge cannot be understated - New England players consistently performed above their individual talent levels when the national spotlight amplified their underdog status. This created a perfect storm where preparation met motivation under maximum pressure. This trend matters most when the Patriots face division rivals or playoff-contending teams in primetime, particularly in late-season games where their systematic approach can exploit opponents' overconfidence.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the New England Patriots's ATS record as primetime underdog?
The New England Patriots have an outstanding 30-11-0 ATS record as primetime underdogs from 2014-2024. This represents a 73.2% ATS win rate over 41 games.
Is betting on the New England Patriots as primetime underdog profitable?
Yes, betting on the Patriots as primetime underdogs has been highly profitable with a 39.7% ROI. This strong return is driven by their exceptional 73.2% ATS success rate in this situation.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Patriots' 73.2% ATS rate as primetime underdogs significantly outperforms the typical league average of around 50%. Their 39.7% ROI also far exceeds what most teams generate in underdog situations.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
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All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.