New England Patriots Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend

The Patriots' struggles as large favorites stem from their historically methodical approach under Bill Belichick's system, which often prioritized game management over explosive scoring once leads were established. New England's culture emphasized taking what defenses gave them rather than forcing big plays, leading to closer-than-expected margins even in games they controlled throughout. The psychological element plays a significant role as well. Teams facing the Patriots as heavy underdogs historically entered with nothing-to-lose mentalities, often playing their most inspired football against a dynasty that represented the gold standard. Meanwhile, New England's veteran-heavy rosters sometimes showed subtle letdowns when facing inferior competition, particularly in regular season games where playoff positioning wasn't immediately at stake. The Patriots' defensive philosophy also contributed to these narrow margins. Their bend-but-don't-break approach allowed opponents to move the ball between the 20s while tightening in the red zone, keeping games closer on the scoreboard than the underlying statistics suggested. This created situations where New England dominated time of possession and total yards but failed to deliver the knockout punch that large spreads demanded. This trend matters most when backing New England as double-digit favorites in divisional games, where familiarity breeds competitive contests regardless of talent disparities.