New England Patriots Home Favorite Betting Trend

The Patriots' struggles as home favorites reflect the inherent challenges of meeting inflated expectations in Foxborough. During their dynasty years, New England often entered games as substantial favorites due to their reputation rather than matchup-specific advantages. This created situations where the betting public overvalued their dominance, particularly against divisional opponents who knew their system intimately and played with extra motivation against the defending champions. The psychological burden of being expected to cover large spreads consistently worked against New England. Teams facing the Patriots at home typically employed conservative, mistake-free gameplans designed to keep games close and capitalize on any Patriots miscues. This approach proved especially effective when New England had already secured playoff positioning and lacked the urgency to blow out inferior opponents. The coaching philosophy under Bill Belichick also contributed to this trend. Once the Patriots established comfortable leads, they often shifted to ball control and clock management rather than running up scores. This conservative approach in the second half frequently prevented them from covering larger spreads, even in games they controlled throughout. This trend carries the most weight when the Patriots are favored by more than a touchdown against desperate opponents with nothing to lose, particularly late in the season when motivation levels vary dramatically between teams.