The public often underestimates the New England Patriots in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog, the New England Patriots hold a record of 13-4-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +46.0% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $8 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record13-4-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size17 games
ROI+46.0%
Units Won+7.8u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-0-00.0%+90.9%
20153-0-00.0%+90.9%
20171-0-00.0%+90.9%
20183-0-00.0%+90.9%
20191-0-00.0%+90.9%
20201-1-00.0%-4.5%
20210-1-00.0%-100.0%
20221-0-00.0%+90.9%
20230-1-00.0%-100.0%
20242-1-00.0%+27.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The Patriots' exceptional performance as home underdogs stems from their organizational culture of embracing the disrespected role, particularly during the Bill Belichick era. When playing at Gillette Stadium with the betting public doubting them, New England historically transforms perceived slights into motivational fuel. The team's systematic approach to preparation becomes even more meticulous when facing adversity, as Belichick's defensive schemes tend to exploit opponents who may overlook a "lesser" Patriots squad. Foxborough's unique late-season weather conditions often neutralize talent disparities, allowing superior coaching and game planning to shine through. The Patriots' special teams units and situational football execution—areas where preparation trumps raw talent—become decisive factors when oddsmakers view them as inferior. Their veteran leadership has consistently rallied younger players in these spots, creating an us-against-the-world mentality that translates to inspired performances. Smart bettors should target Patriots home underdog spots when they're facing divisional opponents or teams coming off emotional victories, as New England's preparation advantage becomes magnified. This trend carries the most weight in October through December games when weather becomes a factor and the Patriots' systematic approach to winning ugly football reaches its peak effectiveness.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the New England Patriots's ATS record as home underdog?

The New England Patriots have a 13-4-0 ATS record as home underdogs from 2014-2024. This represents a strong 76.5% ATS win rate in this specific situation.

Is betting on the New England Patriots as home underdog profitable?

Yes, betting on the Patriots as home underdogs has been highly profitable with a 46.0% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite their 0.0% straight-up win rate in these games, they consistently covered the spread.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Patriots' 76.5% ATS win rate as home underdogs significantly outperforms the typical league average of around 50%. Their 46.0% ROI indicates exceptional value in this betting situation over the 11-year span.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.