New England Patriots As Favorite Betting Trend

The Patriots' struggles as favorites reflect the fundamental challenge of sustaining excellence in the salary cap era. New England's dynasty created unrealistic market expectations, with oddsmakers and the public consistently overvaluing their ability to dominate inferior opponents. The team's methodical, ball-control approach often led to closer-than-expected games against motivated underdogs, particularly divisional rivals who knew their schemes intimately. Brady's departure in 2020 marked a seismic shift, yet betting markets were slow to adjust to the reality of life without the greatest quarterback of all time. The Patriots' conservative coaching philosophy under Bill Belichick, while effective for winning games, rarely produced the blowouts that favorite bettors needed to cash tickets. Their tendency to play down to competition and manage games conservatively once ahead created a perfect storm for covering failures. The psychological element cannot be ignored - opponents consistently brought their best effort against the Patriots, viewing games as statement opportunities. This "Super Bowl mentality" from underdogs, combined with New England's workmanlike approach, created consistent value on the other side. This trend matters most when the Patriots are laying more than a touchdown at home, where public perception and line inflation reach their peak.