The public often underestimates the Minnesota Vikings in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home vs division rival, the Minnesota Vikings hold a record of 7-5-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +11.4% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $1 over this period.

✅ Profitable
Record7-5-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size12 games
ROI+11.4%
Units Won+1.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-0-00.0%+90.9%
20151-2-00.0%-36.4%
20160-1-00.0%-100.0%
20171-0-00.0%+90.9%
20190-2-00.0%-100.0%
20201-0-00.0%+90.9%
20222-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Vikings' solid performance against division rivals at home stems from their ability to leverage familiarity and crowd energy in high-stakes matchups. Minnesota's defensive scheme under coordinator Brian Flores thrives on creating exotic looks and pressure packages that become particularly effective when teams face them twice annually. Division opponents often struggle to adjust to these defensive wrinkles in the hostile environment of U.S. Bank Stadium, where the crowd noise can disrupt communication and timing. Minnesota's offensive identity also plays a crucial role in this trend. The Vikings typically control tempo well at home, using their ground game and play-action concepts to dictate the pace against familiar opponents who may be overly aggressive in trying to generate explosive plays. Division rivals often come in with specific game plans to neutralize Minnesota's strengths, but the home field advantage allows the Vikings to execute their preferred style more effectively. The psychological edge cannot be understated either. Division games carry extra emotional weight, and playing at home provides Minnesota with the comfort and confidence to execute in clutch moments. Their ability to cover spreads consistently suggests they perform better than market expectations in these emotionally charged contests. This trend holds the most value when Minnesota is facing division rivals coming off short weeks or in late-season scenarios where playoff implications amplify the emotional stakes.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Minnesota Vikings's ATS record as home vs division rival?

The Minnesota Vikings have a 7-5-0 ATS record when playing at home against division rivals from 2014-2024. This gives them a 58.3% ATS win rate in these matchups.

Is betting on the Minnesota Vikings as home vs division rival profitable?

Yes, betting on the Vikings as home favorites against division rivals has been profitable with an 11.4% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite the positive ROI, their straight-up win rate in these games is 0.0%.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Vikings' 58.3% ATS win rate at home vs division rivals is above the typical 50% baseline expected in spread betting. Their 11.4% ROI indicates strong value compared to the average -110 juice that requires 52.4% to break even.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.