The data suggests caution when backing the Minnesota Vikings in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Minnesota Vikings are just 4-7-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -30.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +30.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record4-7-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size11 games
ROI-30.6%
Units Won-3.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-1-00.0%-100.0%
20151-1-00.0%-4.5%
20161-0-00.0%+90.9%
20170-1-00.0%-100.0%
20181-0-00.0%+90.9%
20190-1-00.0%-100.0%
20201-2-00.0%-36.4%
20210-1-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Vikings' struggles as road favorites following losses reveal a franchise caught between inflated expectations and underlying volatility. Minnesota has historically been a team that relies heavily on momentum and confidence, particularly in hostile environments where their offensive rhythm can be disrupted. When coming off a loss, the psychological weight of being favored away from home creates a perfect storm of pressure that this organization has consistently failed to navigate. Mike Zimmer's defensive philosophy and the team's reliance on establishing early leads becomes problematic when they're expected to bounce back immediately on the road. The Vikings often press too hard to make statement plays after disappointing performances, leading to uncharacteristic turnovers and defensive breakdowns. Their offensive line issues over this period have been magnified in these spots, as opposing defenses can pin their ears back knowing Minnesota needs to prove something. The coaching staff's tendency to overthink game plans after losses compounds these issues, often abandoning what works in favor of trying to address previous week's failures. This creates a team that looks disjointed and tentative despite being the betting favorite. This trend carries the most weight when the Vikings are road favorites of 3-6 points after divisional losses, where the pressure to respond is amplified.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Minnesota Vikings's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?

The Minnesota Vikings have a 4-7-0 ATS record as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 36.4% ATS win rate in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Minnesota Vikings as away favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Minnesota Vikings as away favorites after a loss has not been profitable. This strategy has produced a -30.6% ROI over the 2014-2024 period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the league average, as NFL teams typically cover around 50% of spreads. The Vikings' 36.4% ATS rate in this situation is well below standard expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.