The data suggests caution when backing the Miami Dolphins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs division opponent, the Miami Dolphins are just 4-12-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -52.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +52.3%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record4-12-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size16 games
ROI-52.3%
Units Won-8.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20151-1-00.0%-4.5%
20170-3-00.0%-100.0%
20180-3-00.0%-100.0%
20192-2-00.0%-4.5%
20201-1-00.0%-4.5%
20230-1-00.0%-100.0%
20240-1-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Dolphins' struggles against divisional opponents stem from their organizational instability and the brutal nature of the AFC East. Miami has cycled through multiple coaching staffs and quarterback changes over this period, creating inconsistent game planning and execution when facing familiar opponents who study their tendencies twice yearly. The Patriots' sustained excellence during this timeframe particularly hurt Miami's divisional record, as New England consistently exploited Miami's defensive weaknesses and offensive predictability. Divisional games demand tactical sophistication and roster depth that Miami often lacked during their rebuilding phases. The Dolphins frequently entered these matchups with inferior talent, especially along the offensive line and in pass coverage, making them vulnerable to teams that knew exactly how to attack their weaknesses. The Bills and Jets also capitalized on Miami's inconsistent quarterback play, often forcing turnovers in crucial moments. The psychological factor cannot be ignored - Miami developed a defeatist mentality in divisional play, particularly evident in their road performances where crowd noise and hostile environments amplified their execution problems. This trend carries the most weight when Miami faces divisional opponents as road underdogs, where their historical struggles compound with unfavorable game circumstances, making fade opportunities particularly valuable for sharp bettors.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Miami Dolphins's ATS record as vs division opponent?

The Miami Dolphins have a 4-12-0 ATS record when playing against division opponents from 2014-2024. This represents a 25% ATS win rate over this 11-year period.

Is betting on the Miami Dolphins as vs division opponent profitable?

No, betting on the Miami Dolphins against division opponents has been highly unprofitable with a -52.3% ROI. This means bettors would have lost over half their investment backing Miami in divisional matchups.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as teams typically perform around 50% ATS over large sample sizes. Miami's 25% ATS rate against division rivals represents one of the worst divisional betting trends in the NFL.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.