Miami Dolphins Medium Favorite (-3.5 to -7) Betting Trend

The Dolphins' struggles as medium favorites stem from their historically volatile offensive identity and inconsistent execution in games where they're expected to control. Miami has built its reputation on explosive plays and high-octane passing attacks, but this feast-or-famine approach creates dangerous variance when laying moderate chalk. When the market prices them as medium favorites, it's typically banking on their offensive ceiling, yet the Dolphins often fail to sustain drives consistently enough to cover these spreads. Miami's coaching tendencies also work against them in this spot. The franchise has cycled through multiple offensive philosophies over the past decade, leading to predictable game-planning issues when facing opponents who can force them into methodical, possession-based football. Teams getting 3.5 to 7 points from Miami know they can stay competitive by limiting big plays and forcing the Dolphins to execute in the red zone, where their efficiency has historically lagged. The psychological element cannot be ignored either. Miami teams have repeatedly shown they play to the level of their competition, often appearing flat against opponents they should dominate while rising up against superior teams. This trend matters most in divisional games and against teams with strong defensive coordinators who can neutralize Miami's vertical passing game.