Miami Dolphins Home Favorite Betting Trend

The Dolphins' struggles as home favorites stem from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and team identity. Miami has historically been a franchise caught between rebuilding phases and playoff pushes, creating situations where the betting public overvalues their potential against weaker opponents. When installed as home favorites, the Dolphins often face teams with nothing to lose, while Miami carries the psychological burden of expectations they're not equipped to handle. The franchise's inconsistent quarterback play and coaching turnover since 2014 has created a culture where the team performs better as underdogs with low expectations. As favorites, Miami tends to play tight and conservative, particularly in the red zone where their offensive limitations become magnified. The team's defensive schemes, often designed to keep games close rather than dominate, allow inferior opponents to stay within striking distance throughout contests. South Beach's unique atmosphere can work against the Dolphins when favored, as casual fans expect dominant performances that rarely materialize. The team's historical struggles in primetime and divisional games compound this issue when they're expected to control games at home. This trend carries the most weight when Miami is favored by 3-7 points against non-divisional opponents, where the line suggests confidence the team simply cannot deliver.